The methodological problem in Chapters 5-7 is to model dynamic processes: the emergence and disappearance of Knights of Labor assemblies. Having constructed organizational histories for every local industry and every town in New Jersey, I wanted to analyze statistically two portions of this sequence--the development of organization among less--skilled workers and the demise of all types of Knights local assemblies.
Event-history analysis provides a way of analyzing a longitudinal record of when events happened to a sample of individuals or collectivities.1. For the sake of illustration, consider first the "event" modeled in Chapter 5: the founding of a new Knights of Labor local that incorporates less-skilled workers.
Formally, let Pjk (t, t + Δt) be the probability that an individual (or collectivity) in state j at time t is in some other state k at time t + Δt,____________________