Recent Recruiting Trends and Their Implications for Models of Enlistment Supply

By Micheal P. Murray; Laurie L. McDonald | Go to book overview

PREFACE

Based on RAND's past body of recruiting research and on indications of increased difficulty in meeting recruiting goals, in spring 1994 the Army Chief of Staff and the Deputy Secretary of Defense asked RAND to examine recent trends in the recruiting market and their implications for meeting accession requirements. The request for assistance consisted of two parts: (1) a quick initial examination of the trends and (2) a longer-term research agenda to study the recruiting outlook in depth. The results of the preliminary examination were briefed in May 1994 and are documented in RAND report MR-549-A/OSD, Recent Recruiting Trends and Their Implications: Preliminary Analysis and Recommendations (Asch and Orvis, 1994). The current report presents some results from the longer-term analysis. In it, we update our econometric models of enlisted supply, and we use the results to determine if there have been important changes in the effectiveness of various recruiting inputs during the post-Cold War period. We also use the updated model to make predictions about the adequacy of supply in fiscal year 1997. The findings should be of interest to planners and policymakers concerned with recruiting.

Other reports produced as part of the larger research project include MR-677-A/OSD, Military Recruiting Outlook: Recent Trends inEnlistment Propensity and Conversion of Potential Enlisted Supply (Orvis, Sastry, and McDonald, 1996); MR-818–0SD/A, Estimating AFQT Scores for National Educational Longitudinal Study (NELS) Respondents (Kilburn, Hanser, and Klerman, 1998); and MR-845–0SD/A, Encouraging Recruiter Achievement: A Recent History of Recruiter Incentive Programs (Oken and Asch, 1997).

-iii-

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Recent Recruiting Trends and Their Implications for Models of Enlistment Supply
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Title Page *
  • Preface iii
  • Contents v
  • Figures vii
  • Tables ix
  • Summary xi
  • Acknowledgments xiii
  • Chapter One - Introduction 1
  • Chapter Two - Variables Influencing Enlistment Supply 7
  • Chapter Three - The Econometric Models 21
  • Chapter Four - Empirical Results 31
  • Chapter Five - Conclusions and Recommendations 51
  • Appendix A - A Formal Model of Enlistment Supply 55
  • Appendix B - The Stochastic Specification and Estimation Procedures 61
  • Appendix C - Estimation Results for Aggregate and Logarithmic Models for the Army 75
  • Bibliography 81
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