Recent Recruiting Trends and Their Implications for Models of Enlistment Supply

By Micheal P. Murray; Laurie L. McDonald | Go to book overview

SUMMARY

Concerns have arisen over the ability of the military services to meet their recruiting requirements over the next few years. The number of recruiters and the advertising budget have been cut over the course of the drawdown as recruit cohorts have shrunk by over a third. As compared with FY95, a 20 percent increase in accessions—greater than 40 percent for the Army—was needed by FY97 if the services were to meet the force strengths planned for that year.

Beginning in the early part of this decade, anecdotal evidence suggested that recruiters had been having trouble achieving their goals. A preliminary RAND investigation in 1994 indicated that there should not have been a supply shortage in the early-to-mid 1990s. Here, we revisit that question with a more thorough analysis, restricting ourselves to supply-projection models based on econometric analysis of specific supply and demand determinants. (Other parts of the larger research project examine other aspects of recruiting trends.) As the parameters in earlier models were estimated with data from the 1980s, we reestimate the models with 1990s data to determine whether those parameters—and thus the underlying supply process—have changed. We also determine whether any changes in factors influencing supply occurred. Finally, we use the updated model using 1990s data to predict the adequacy of supply in FY97.

To compare models estimated with data from the 1980s and 1990s, we needed comparably structured models and comparable data. The easiest way to set up the comparison was to create models—one for each service—and estimate them for both 1980s and 1990s data.

-xi-

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Recent Recruiting Trends and Their Implications for Models of Enlistment Supply
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Title Page *
  • Preface iii
  • Contents v
  • Figures vii
  • Tables ix
  • Summary xi
  • Acknowledgments xiii
  • Chapter One - Introduction 1
  • Chapter Two - Variables Influencing Enlistment Supply 7
  • Chapter Three - The Econometric Models 21
  • Chapter Four - Empirical Results 31
  • Chapter Five - Conclusions and Recommendations 51
  • Appendix A - A Formal Model of Enlistment Supply 55
  • Appendix B - The Stochastic Specification and Estimation Procedures 61
  • Appendix C - Estimation Results for Aggregate and Logarithmic Models for the Army 75
  • Bibliography 81
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