Recent Recruiting Trends and Their Implications for Models of Enlistment Supply

By Micheal P. Murray; Laurie L. McDonald | Go to book overview

Chapter Five
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

In this report we estimate an econometric model of high-quality enlistment supply using data from two periods, FY83–FY87 and FY90–FY93. We found that the structure of high-quality enlistee supply has changed in the post-Cold War period, especially the effect of recruiters for the Army and the Air Force. What is not clear from the data is whether this shift is peculiar to the transitional period following the drawdown of forces and the end of the Cold War or will persist across the coming decade. We also confirm the result found in the preliminary analysis (Asch and Orvis, 1996) that supply in the mid-1990s should have been adequate to meet the services' demands for recruits. Finally, we found that an econometric model using 1990s data suggests that the Army would have difficulty meeting its recruiting goal for FY97. To address the recruiting problems it faced in FY97, the Army increased its recruiting resources, including educational benefits, enlistment bonuses, and advertising, and it lowered its accession mission. Consequently, the Army was able to meet its FY97 mission.

We estimated the model using geographically disaggregated data; the unit of observation is a PUMA, an area smaller than a state but generally larger than a county. Each PUMA is observed monthly over the periods FY83-FY87 and FY90-FY93. We used an instrumental-variables, feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) estimator that accounts for serial correlation in the disturbances and also for correlations in the disturbances within recruiting unit areas. The estimation procedure also accounted for correlation between lagged performance measures and the current disturbance in the gross contracts supply equation.

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Recent Recruiting Trends and Their Implications for Models of Enlistment Supply
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Title Page *
  • Preface iii
  • Contents v
  • Figures vii
  • Tables ix
  • Summary xi
  • Acknowledgments xiii
  • Chapter One - Introduction 1
  • Chapter Two - Variables Influencing Enlistment Supply 7
  • Chapter Three - The Econometric Models 21
  • Chapter Four - Empirical Results 31
  • Chapter Five - Conclusions and Recommendations 51
  • Appendix A - A Formal Model of Enlistment Supply 55
  • Appendix B - The Stochastic Specification and Estimation Procedures 61
  • Appendix C - Estimation Results for Aggregate and Logarithmic Models for the Army 75
  • Bibliography 81
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