China is emerging as a major global and regional player that will likely playa part in U.S. foreign policy well into the 21st century. A better understanding of China's interests, as well as its economic and military capabilities, will assist in crisis prevention and war avoidance. This report examines the applicability of deterrence theory to the future Sino- U.S relationship and examines the particular requirements that deterrence of China might impose.
This report is part of a larger project entitled “Chinese Defense Modernization and the USAF,” which is being conducted in the Strategy and Doctrine Program of Project AIR FORCE under the sponsorship of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Air and Space Operations, U.S. Air Force (AF/XO), and the Commander, Pacific Air Forces (PACAF/CC). Comments may be directed to the author or to Zalmay Khalilzad, the program director.
Project AIR FORCE, a division of RAND, is the Air Force federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) for studies and analysis. It provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is performed in four programs: Aerospace Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine.