Emerging Threats, Force Structures, and the Role of Air Power in Korea

By Natalie W. Crawford | Go to book overview

Chapter Two
DEFENSE PLANNING IN AN ERA OF UNCERTAINTY:
EAST ASIAN ISSUES
Paul K. Davis

INTRODUCTION

Defense planning is largely about developing capabilities and options for the mid and long term. A fundamental element of such planning is accounting for uncertainty. This essay reviews basic concepts for planning under uncertainty and relates them to U.S. national security strategy. It then addresses East Asian issues, including potential changes in the East Asian strategic environment and the implications of the revolution in military affairs (RMA)—for both the United States and regional allies, notably the Republic of Korea (ROK).


BASIC PLANNING CONCEPTS

The Baseline Paradigm for Much Defense Planning

As background, consider a common but naïve planning paradigm that can be found in organizations worldwide and in defenseplanning organizations specifically (Figure 2.1). The concept is that one begins (top left) by assessing the threat and characterizing the related requirements for defense. Then one develops options for dealing with the threats, evaluates the options to find the “optimum” strategy, and proceeds to implement that strategy. This is what might be regarded as a mathematician's preferred approach. It is compara-

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