NATO Enlargement, 2000-2015: Determinants and Implications for Defense Planning and Shaping

By Thomas S. Szayna | Go to book overview

Chapter Three
PATTERNS IN THE ENLARGEMENT PROCESS

As envisioned and implemented so far, the enlargement process is long-term and has neither milestones nor deadlines for completion. It is an open process that in principle does not reject beforehand the membership of any European country (as stipulated in Article 10 of the Washington Treaty). Since early 1994, NATO has committed itself to a gradual and transparent process of enlargement, although the meaning of gradual and transparent is subject to interpretation. If we assume a no-surprises evolution, forecasts of enlargement in the 2000–10 decade can range from a slow pace of one to two new members to a stepped-up pace of two to three rounds of enlargement, each involving more than one new member. Either of these paths, as well as any number of in-between options, is plausible. But given the driving forces at play and the process's evolution so far, the more likely pathways are in the former, slower category.

The primary reason for a likely slower pace is that the urgency leading up to NATO's enlargement in 1997–99 has dissipated. That initial enlargement was driven by the strong advocacy of the United States and Germany, as well as by a strategic imperative to demonstrate NATO's continued importance in post–Cold War Europe. The 1997– 99 enlargement put to rest any doubts about NATO's commitment to taking in new members, and NATO's involvement in peace operations in the Balkans beginning in 1995 demonstrated its continued relevance. Consequently, with the main driving forces no longer so pressing, NATO's enlargement has ceased to be a major topic in discussions of NATO's future. Instead, the agenda is now dominated by discussions of measures to improve the compatibility and inter-

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NATO Enlargement, 2000-2015: Determinants and Implications for Defense Planning and Shaping
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Title Page *
  • Preface iii
  • Contents v
  • Figures vii
  • Tables ix
  • Summary xiii
  • Acknowledgements xix
  • Chapter One - Introduction 1
  • Chapter Two - The Planning Context 5
  • Chapter Three - Patterns in the Enlargement Process 41
  • Chapter Four - Assessing Candidates for Future Accession to NATO 49
  • Chapter Five - Shaping the Forces of Aspiring Members 107
  • Chapter Six - Conclusions 131
  • Appendix - Inventory of Aircraft and Helicopters in the Map States 147
  • References 155
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