R. W. Wright
R. L. Mansell
The recent increase in the international price of oil and natural gas has created a variety of opportunities for industrial development in the Province of Alberta. For example, it increases the likelihood that it will be feasible to develop the oil sands and to construct a series of world scale petrochemical plants within the province.
These new opportunities emerge at a time when the provincial economy is already reasonably buoyant. Thus, Alberta appears to be in the rather enviable position of having the choice between maintaining past growth rates or, instead, embarking on a policy in which the rate of investment is accelerated. The objective of this paper is to trace through some of the implications of such an acceleration, paying particular attention to its likely effect on migration patterns.
The analysis is based on an econometric model which has been constructed to simulate some of the more important economic processes which occur in Alberta. This model is described in Section I; in Section II it is adapted for predictive purposes. That is to say we trace through the impact of accelerated investment on the Alberta economy over the period 1976-1985. In Section III we discuss some of the policy implications of our analysis.
An econometric model identifies and quantifies the important