Recruiting Youth in the College Market: Current Practices and Future Policy Options

By M. Rebecca Kilburn; Beth J. Asch | Go to book overview

Appendix F

DETAILS OF PREDICTED PROBABILITY ESTIMATES

In this appendix, we provide the specifics of the estimation of the predicted probabilities reported in Chapter Four.


RESULTS IN TABLES 4.4 AND 4.8

For Table 4.4, we estimated a multinomial logit model where the outcomes were four-year college entry, two-year college entry, and certificate program entry. For Table 4.8, we estimated a multinomial logit model where the outcomes were the person's educational status five years after entry: two-year dropout, two-year graduate, still enrolled in a two-year college, four-year dropout, four-year graduate, or still enrolled in a four-year college. For both sets of estimates, we included as explanatory variables the eligibility characteristics shown in Table F.1.

No other covariates were included in the model. We then used the results from this model to estimate the predicted probability of being in each of the outcome categories for a simulated individual who exhibits all of the desirable eligibility characteristics (for example, the person has a high school degree, has not taken remedial math, has high leadership ability, is a U. S. citizen, etc.). The predicted probabilities of a person with these characteristics being in each of the three entry groups are reported in Table 4.4, and the predicted probabilities of a person with these characteristics being in each of the categories five years after entry are reported in Table 4.8.

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