Probability and Chance
Probability is… the philosophical success story of the first half of the twentieth century.
—Hacking (1990, p. 4)
Strictly speaking it may even be said that nearly all our knowledge is problematical; and in the small number of things which we are able to know with certainty, even in the mathematical sciences themselves, the principal means for ascertaining truth—induction and analogy—are based on probabilities.
—Laplace (1814/1951, p. 1)
Subjective probabilities are required for reasoning… a theory of partially ordered subjective probabilities is a necessary ingredient of rationality.
—Good (1983, p. 95)
T he use of chance devices and the drawing of lots for purposes of sortilege and divination were common to many cultures of antiquity. Classical Greek literature contains numerous references to games of chance at least as early as the Trojan wars, and there is evidence to suggest that such games were known in Egypt and elsewhere long before then. One of the earliest known written documents about the use of chance devices in gaming is in the Vedic poems of the