People as Intuitive
We develop subjective concepts of probability which permeate and guide our thoughts and actions.
—Cohen (1957, p. 128)
Applying probabilities and statistics is much more a matter of grasping the situation, constructing informal arguments, and building comprehensive narratives than of substituting numbers into formulas.
—Paulas (1998, p. 82)
In general, we cannot expect good quantitative statistical intuitions, nor even good qualitative intuitions, for probability questions of a sort that do not arise in ordinary experience. But we would expect good intuitions to the extent that pragmatic conditions in the world would provide the required tuning to experience.
—Margolis (1987, p. 164)
M uch of the research that falls under the general rubric of intuitive statistics has had to do with the ways in which people process probabilistic data. How are beliefs about the world formed or modified as a consequence of the re-