Cognition and Chance: The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning

By Raymond S. Nickerson | Go to book overview

Subject Index

A
Acceptance-support testing, 77
Aces and kings problem, 160–170
Actuarial statistics, 246–247
Additive-difference model of decision making, 358
Adjustment, anchoring and, 375–378, 390
Admissible scoring rules, 391–394
Affirmation of the consequent, 109–110
Aleatory contracts, 15
Aleatory probability, 30, 31, 32, 34, 45
Alpha,248–249
Altruism
development of, 212
prisoner's dilemma and, 217, 220
social dilemmas and evidence of, 228
ultimatum game and, 224–225
Ambiguity
in problem statements, 425
in statistical assertions, 274–279
Analysis of variance, 266
Anchoring, 375–378, 390
Annuities, 15, 233
Anthropic (cosmological) principle, 103–108
strong form, 105–106
testability of, 106–108
weak form, 104–105
Applicability of Bayesian reasoning, 138–139
Approximate entropy, 55–56
A priori probability, 23
Argument
statistics in service of, 263–264
strength of, 22
Ars Conjectandi (Bernoulli), 11, 12
Articulation, in argument, 264
Assassination coincidences, 82–83
Assessment, risk, 292, 303–304, 305, 313–314, 331
Assimilation effect, 425
Assumptions, in probability problems, 156–157, 161–165, 169–171, 173–175
Astragali, 2
Astronomy, 15
Attention, role played in frequency perception and retention, 286–287
Attribution, vs. prediction, 411
Availability, 371–373, 380
principle of, 291
Average family-average child puzzle, 150–151
Axiomatic theory of probability, 39
Axiomatization of probability theory, 33

B
Baconian probability theory, 422–423
Bargaining, anchoring and adjustment and, 378
Base-rate neglect, 374–375, 399, 402–405, 409–410

-505-

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Cognition and Chance: The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Title Page *
  • Contents vii
  • Preface ix
  • Chapter 1 - Probability and Chance 1
  • Chapter 2 - Randomness 54
  • Chapter 3 - Coincidences 82
  • Chapter 4 - Inverse Probability and the Reverend Tnomas Bayes 109
  • Chapter 5 - Some Instructive Problems 143
  • Chapter 6 - Some Probability Paradoxes Ana Dilemmas 181
  • Chapter 7 - Statistics 232
  • Chapter 8 - Estimation Ana Prediction 283
  • Chapter 9 - Perception of Covariation Ana Contingency 332
  • Chapter 10 - Choice Under Uncertainty 355
  • Chapter 11 - People as Intuitive Probabilists 398
  • Chapter 12 - Concluding Comments 436
  • References 439
  • Author Index 489
  • Subject Index 505
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