Bülent Aras and George Foster
The appearance of new states in Central Asia and the Caucasus region at the collapse of the Soviet Union caused a radical shift in the foreign policy of Turkey, and triggered a search for means of tactical political-economic penetration into these countries. 1 Turkey's efforts in this regard have been motivated by a desire to spread the Turkish model of government and society—consisting of parliamentary democracy, relatively free-market economy, and secularism in a Muslim society—as well as to take advantage of the mutual development opportunities that cooperation can create. For Turkey, these opportunities include guaranteed access to vital energy resources, lucrative oil transport revenues, as well as increased diplomatic clout and strategic importance. For the new republics, these opportunities include the prospect of attracting investment and technological expertise, as well as establishing a secure route for distribution of their products to the West.
Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakstan—the Turkic-speaking former Soviet states of the Caspian region—have attracted the greatest interest on the part of Turkey among the newly independent states. The source of this interest is not only the linguistic, ethnic, religious, and cultural affinity shared by Turkey and these countries, but also the tremendous oil and gas reserves possessed by the Caspian states.
It is not difficult to understand why Turkey has oil on its mind. It has been estimated that to maintain the present course of its economic development, Turkey will require the importation of vast amounts of crude oil in the coming decades—roughly 22 million tons annually by the year 2010. 2 But as the Turkish president said recently: “We see this rich region of oil and gas reserves not just as a source of energy, but as an element of stability. Just as the founders of the European community saw coal as a source of peace and stability for Europe, so we see oil and gas in our region serving the same role.” 3 Turkey knows that
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