Frederic S. Nyland
The purpose of this chapter is to examine various aspects of arms reduction between the United States and Russia that may emerge in the twenty-first century. The focus of this chapter will be on the strategic nuclear forces of these two countries and some of the potential prospects as well as the problems that might be encountered. At present, arms reductions are being accomplished in accordance with the START I Treaty. 1 Even so, Russia and the United States still retain a very large number of strategic nuclear weapons. Agreement on the terms of the START II Treaty has been achieved. 2 The U.S. Senate and the Russian Duma have ratified START II. Negotiations for START III lie in the future. 3 In spite of the apparent satisfactory political relationships between the two nations, either the United States or Russia each retain more nuclear weapons than those of all other nations combined. With or without further reductions in strategic nuclear armaments, there is a need to consider the interactions of the world's two largest nuclear powers under present and future political and military conditions. In this chapter attention is devoted to future bipolar conditions as they may prevail beyond START II into the twenty-first century.
Strategic nuclear inventories of the United States and Russia are shown in Figure 4.1 along with some possible reductions in the strategic nuclear warheads of the two countries. The situation as of January 1999 is shown first. The inventories are 7,958 for the United States and 6,578 for Russia. The terms of the START II treaty would be met with the forces shown next. 4 The upper bound suggested for the warhead