Global Instability and Strategic Crisis

By Neville Brown | Go to book overview

13

Planetary internationalism

Since the 'Twin Towers', the world has been preoccupied by armed conflict, actual or looming. Yet over decadal time spans, things often turn out very different from whatever had seemed so obviously in train. Addressing the US Congress in July 2003, Prime Minister Blair described an equitable settlement within the Holy Land between Palestinians and Israelis as essential to the success of the global counter-offensive against insurgent terrorism. Subject to that, the next twenty years or so could be comparatively peaceable.

However, such an interlude will not herald the End of History. It will simply be an opportunity to evolve a new world order, this via the proactive participation of all peoples. Failing that, major crises will break in rapid succession, in the 2015 to 2033 timeframe, as various climaxes or thresholds of tension concur. At the heart of this syndrome will be the biowarfare threat cranked up by Genetic Modification. It will perforce assume a macabre pride of place within WMD. Meanwhile, the weaponization of Near Space could be a major issue. Climate change may also be biting hard, and countless ecological indicators be in accelerating decline. In other ways, too, the downside of globalization (material and cultural) will be impacting. Not least, the generation which came to adulthood before 1960 will be passing on; and in the more urbanized societies it will have been the last to know the full strength of community and extended family bonding, attributes often constrictive for individuals but important for social cohesion within the West no less than elsewhere. All in all, the world of 2033 could be dangerously distracted. Nor will the proliferation of personal firearms and addictive drugs help the situation.


Blinkered virtuosity

This prospect strategic studies is desperately unready for. As an academic discipline, it never fails to generate its fair share of closely argued analyses. Yet almost everything is still set within the thematic confines of forty years

-217-

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Global Instability and Strategic Crisis
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Title Page v
  • Contents vii
  • The Author ix
  • Preface xi
  • Abbreviations xvii
  • Part I - The Strategic Revolution 1
  • 1 - Through 11 September 3
  • 2 - The Poverty of Strategy 32
  • 3 - A War on Terror? 45
  • 4 - Saddam, Slow Decline and Rapid Fall 59
  • Part II - Limited World War? 71
  • 5 - Social Instability 73
  • 6 - Macabre Lethality 100
  • 7 - The Ascent of the Missile 122
  • Part III - Defence Against Missiles 131
  • 8 - Ballistic Encounter 133
  • 9 - Terrestrial Coverage 156
  • 10 - The Heavens Subverted? 163
  • Part IV - The Quest for Strategy 181
  • 11 - Pax Atlantica? 183
  • 12 - Arms in Moderation 197
  • 13 - Planetary Internationalism 217
  • 14 - Strategy Transcended 243
  • Appendix A 265
  • Appendix B 272
  • Further Reading 279
  • Notes 281
  • Index 303
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