TECHNOLOGIES FOR MEETING ZEV PROGRAM REQUIREMENTS AND
PRODUCTION VOLUME ESTIMATES
This section provides an overview of the vehicle technologies that auto manufacturers may use to meet the ZEV program requirements. (These technologies are described in greater detail in Section 4, where we develop cost estimates.) This section also presents the production volumes we used in our analysis, which are important in determining vehicle unit cost. The production projections are not meant to be precise estimates of the numbers of vehicles that will be produced to meet the program requirements. Rather, they are rough estimates of the number of vehicles that may be produced if a particular technology is used in a meaningful way to meet the requirements.
As discussed in Subsection 1.1, CARB has created three technology categories within the ZEV program: ZEVs, partial zero emission vehicles (PZEVs), and advanced technology partial zero emission vehicles (ATPZEVs). Large-volume manufacturers must meet a minimum portion of the program requirements with ZEVs and have the option to satisfy other portions with PZEVs and ATPZEVs. The following paragraphs describe the types of vehicles that manufacturers might plausibly produce in each category.
ZEVs can be based on a number of energy storage technologies (e.g., batteries, capacitors, flywheels, fuel cells), but only battery-powered electric vehicles (BPEVs) and fuel-cell vehicles are actively being pursued by the large-volume manufacturers. We first discuss the various types of BPEVs that may be used to meet program requirements, before turning to fuel-cell vehicles.1
Battery–Powered Electric Vehicles. Until a few years ago, the only vehicles that manufacturers considered for meeting ZEV program requirements were BPEVs similar in size to many vehicles on the road today and freeway capable. These “full-function EVs” typically have top speeds greater than 65 miles per hour, meet U.S. highway safety standards, include amenities such as air conditioning, and have reasonable acceleration (although often less than that of a comparable internal combustion engine vehicle, or ICEV). The major shortcoming of these vehicles is their range—i.e., the distance they can travel on a single charge. While battery____________________