Thought & Knowledge: An Introduction to Critical Thinking

By Diane F. Halpern | Go to book overview
7
Likelihood and Uncertainty: Understanding Probabilities
Contents
Probabilistic Nature of the World Expected Values
Likelihood and Uncertainty Subjective Probability
Odds Gambler's Fallacy
The Laws of Chance Base-Rate Neglect
How We Explain Chance Events Making Probabilistic Decisions
Degrees of Belief Combining Information to Make
Factors Affecting Judgments About Predictions
Likelihood and Uncertainty Thinking With Frequencies
The Search for Meaning Nonregressive Judgments
Overconfidence Risk
Using Probability Assessing Risks
Games of Chance Biases in Risk Assessment
Cards Statistical Use and Abuse
Roulette On the Average
Computing Probabilities in Multiple Precision
Outcome Situations Significant Differences
Using Tree Diagrams Extrapolation
Conjunction Error—Applying the Bamboozled by Statistics
"And Rule" Applying the Framework
Cumulative Risks—Applying the Chapter Summary
"Or Rule" Terms to Know

-264-

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