Analytical Models for Decision Making

By Colin Sanderson; Reinhold Gruen | Go to book overview

Understanding Public Health

Series editors: Nick Black and Rosalind Raine, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

Throughout the world, recognition of the importance of public health to sustainable, safe and healthy societies is growing. The achievements of public health in nineteenth-century Europe were for much of the twentieth century overshadowed by advances in personal care, in particular in hospital care. Now, with the dawning of a new century, there is increasing understanding of the inevitable limits of individual health care and of the need to complement such services with effective public health strategies. Major improvements in people's health will come from controlling communicable diseases, eradicating environmental hazards, improving people's diets and enhancing the availability and quality of effective health care. To achieve this, every country needs a cadre of knowledgeable public health practitioners with social, political and organizational skills to lead and bring about changes at international, national and local levels.

This is one of a series of 20 books that provides a foundation for those wishing to join in and contribute to the twenty-first-century regeneration of public health, helping to put the concerns and perspectives of public health at the heart of policy-making and service provision. While each book stands alone, together they provide a comprehensive account of the three main aims of public health: protecting the public from environmental hazards, improving the health of the public and ensuring high quality health services are available to all. Some of the books focus on methods, others on key topics. They have been written by staff at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine with considerable experience of teaching public health to students from low, middle and high income countries. Much of the material has been developed and tested with postgraduate students both in face-to-face teaching and through distance learning.

The books are designed for self-directed learning. Each chapter has explicit learning objectives, key terms are highlighted and the text contains many activities to enable the reader to test their own understanding of the ideas and material covered. Written in a clear and accessible style, the series will be essential reading for students taking postgraduate courses in public health and will also be of interest to public health practitioners and policy-makers.

Titles in the series

Analytical models for decision making: Colin Sanderson and Reinhold Gruen

Controlling communicable disease: Norman Noah

Economic analysis for management and policy: Stephen Jan, Lilani Kumaranayake, Jenny Roberts, Kara Hanson and Kate Archibald

Economic evaluation: Julia Fox-Rushby and John Cairns (eds)

Environmental epidemiology: Paul Wilkinson (ed)

Environment, health and sustainable development: Megan Landon

Environmental health policy: David Ball (ed)

Financial management in health services: Reinhold Gruen and Anne Howarth

Global change and health: Kelley Lee and Jeff Collin (eds)

Health care evaluation: Sarah Smith, Don Sinclair, Rosalind Raine and Barnaby Reeves

Health promotion practice: Wendy Macdowall, Chris Bonell and Maggie Davies (eds)

Health promotion theory: Maggie Davies and Wendy Macdowall (eds)

Introduction to epidemiology: Lucianne Bailey, Katerina Vardulaki, Julia Langham and Daniel Chandramohan

Introduction to health economics: David Wonderling, Reinhold Gruen and Nick Black

Issues in public health: Joceline Pomerleau and Martin McKee (eds)

Making health policy: Kent Buse, Nicholas Mays and Gill Walt

Managing health services: Nick Goodwin, Reinhold Gruen and Valerie Iles

Medical anthropology: Robert Pool and Wenzel Geissler

Principles of social research: Judith Green and John Browne (eds)

Understanding health services: Nick Black and Reinhold Gruen


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Analytical Models for Decision Making
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Understanding Public Health ii
  • Title Page iii
  • Contents v
  • Acknowledgements vii
  • Overview 1
  • Section 1 - Models and Decision Making in Health Care 5
  • 1: The Role of Models 7
  • 2: Building a Decision Support Model 28
  • 3: Strategic Options Development and Analysis 43
  • Section 2 - Methods for Clarifying Complex Decisions 63
  • 4: Many Criteria 65
  • 5: Uncertainty 84
  • 6: Risk 103
  • Section 3 - Models for Service Planning and Resource Allocation 119
  • 7: Population Need for a Specific Service 121
  • 8: Balanced Service Provision 142
  • 9: Hospital Models 164
  • Section 4 - Modelling for Evaluating Changes in Systems 179
  • 10: Modelling Flows Through Systems 181
  • 11: Irregular Flows Systems with Queues 202
  • 12: Outline Review 223
  • Glossary 227
  • Index 231


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