Analytical Models for Decision Making

By Colin Sanderson; Reinhold Gruen | Go to book overview

2
Building a decision
support model

Overview

In this chapter you will work through the design and analysis of a model of a highly simplified health care programme which covers three diseases. You will start by developing a graphic model of the causal links that allow the programme to achieve its objectives. You will then use this to develop a symbolic model and then estimate the number of lives saved for different balances of expenditure between the three diseases, to help decision makers choose the best balance. This chapter brings together all the stages of the model-building cycle that you learned about in Chapter 1.


Learning objectives
By the end of this chapter, you will be better able to:
formulate and build a qualitative model to address a decision making
problem in managing a community health care programme
simplify and refine the model structure
identify and gather relevant data
build a spreadsheet model
use the model to predict the impact of different options in terms of the
number of lives saved
carry out sensitivity analyses
evaluate the model

Key term

Marginal return The additional benefit secured for an additional amount of expenditure. In
general, marginal return diminishes with increasing expenditure.


Introduction

Models are abstractions and Chapter 1, which was about models in general, was very abstract indeed. Now you are going to build a model of your own. This chapter is loosely based on a health care management game originally developed by Creese and Gentle (1974).

A team of local health care managers has a budget to cover the costs of treatment in

-28-

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Analytical Models for Decision Making
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Understanding Public Health ii
  • Title Page iii
  • Contents v
  • Acknowledgements vii
  • Overview 1
  • Section 1 - Models and Decision Making in Health Care 5
  • 1: The Role of Models 7
  • 2: Building a Decision Support Model 28
  • 3: Strategic Options Development and Analysis 43
  • Section 2 - Methods for Clarifying Complex Decisions 63
  • 4: Many Criteria 65
  • 5: Uncertainty 84
  • 6: Risk 103
  • Section 3 - Models for Service Planning and Resource Allocation 119
  • 7: Population Need for a Specific Service 121
  • 8: Balanced Service Provision 142
  • 9: Hospital Models 164
  • Section 4 - Modelling for Evaluating Changes in Systems 179
  • 10: Modelling Flows Through Systems 181
  • 11: Irregular Flows Systems with Queues 202
  • 12: Outline Review 223
  • Glossary 227
  • Index 231
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