Dancing with Giants: China, India, and the Global Economy

By L. Alan Winters; Shahid Yusuf | Go to book overview

CHAPTER 1
Introduction

L. Alan Winters and Shahid Yusuf

Dancing with Giants

China and India share at least two characteristics: their populations are huge and their economies have been growing very fast for at least 10 years. Already they account for nearly 5 percent and 2 percent of world gross domestic product (GDP), respectively, at current exchange rates. Arguably, China's expansion since 1978 already has been the largest growth [surprise] ever experienced by the world economy; and if we extrapolated their recent growth rates for half a century, we would find that China and India—the Giants—were among the world's very largest economies. Their vast labor forces and expanding skills bases imply massive productive potential, especially if they continue (China) or start (India) to invest heavily in and welcome technology inflows. Low-income countries ask whether there will be any room for them at the bottom of the industrialization ladder, whereas high- and middle-income countries fear the erosion of their current advantages in more sophisticated fields. All recognize that a booming Asia presages strong demands, not only for primary products but also for niche manufactures and services and for industrial inputs and equipment. But, equally, all are eager to know which markets will expand and by how much. Moreover, the growth of these giant economies will affect not only goods markets but also flows of savings, investment, and even people around the world, and will place heavy demands on the global commons, such as the oceans and the atmosphere.

This book cannot answer all these questions, but it contains six essays on important aspects of the growth of the Giants that will, at least, aid thinking about them. Its principal aim is to highlight some of the major implications of the Giants' growth for the world economy and hence for other countries,

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Dancing with Giants: China, India, and the Global Economy
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Title Page i
  • Contents iii
  • Foreword vii
  • Contributors x
  • Acknowledgments xi
  • Background Papers xiii
  • Acronyms and Abbreviation xv
  • Chapter 1 - Introduction 1
  • Chapter 2 - China and India Reshape Global Industrial Geography 35
  • Chapter 3 - Competing with Giants 67
  • Chapter 4 - International Financial Integration of China and India 101
  • Chapter 5 - Energy and Emissions 133
  • Chapter 6 - Partially Awakened Giants 175
  • Chapter 7 - Governance and Economic Growth 211
  • References 243
  • Index 265
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