Dancing with Giants: China, India, and the Global Economy

By L. Alan Winters; Shahid Yusuf | Go to book overview

CHAPTER 3
Competing with Giants

Who Wins, Who Loses?

Betina Dimaranan, Elena lanchovichina, and Will Martin

The rapid growth of China and India in recent years has raised many questions about the implications for the world economy. Will most countries gain? Or will the outcome be brutal competition in a narrow range of products and consequent declines in the prices of developing-country exports, which will impoverish not just China and India but also other developing economies? If some countries lose from increased competition, as found by Freund and Ozden (2006) and Hanson and Robertson (2006), which countries and which products will face the most serious competition? Will the industrial countries face ever-more-sophisticated Chinese and Indian exports that destroy the jobs of skilled workers in today's advanced economies? Or will the benefits of lower prices from China and India allow real incomes in industrial countries to continue to rise strongly?

Are the pessimists right? Although it is certainly the case that rapid increases in exports of any given product must be accommodated by a decline in its price, three recent developments have the potential at least to attenuate these stark scenarios of relentless competition. One development is the rise of two-way trade in manufactures, which makes the recipient countries the beneficiaries of improvements in efficiency in their trading partners (Martin 1993). Another development is the growth of global production sharing, where part of the production process is undertaken in one economy, and subsequent stages are performed in another (Ando and Kimura 2003). This process, fueled by improvements in transport and trade facilitation and in communications, and frequently involving foreign direct investment links,

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Dancing with Giants: China, India, and the Global Economy
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Title Page i
  • Contents iii
  • Foreword vii
  • Contributors x
  • Acknowledgments xi
  • Background Papers xiii
  • Acronyms and Abbreviation xv
  • Chapter 1 - Introduction 1
  • Chapter 2 - China and India Reshape Global Industrial Geography 35
  • Chapter 3 - Competing with Giants 67
  • Chapter 4 - International Financial Integration of China and India 101
  • Chapter 5 - Energy and Emissions 133
  • Chapter 6 - Partially Awakened Giants 175
  • Chapter 7 - Governance and Economic Growth 211
  • References 243
  • Index 265
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