Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence Analysis and National Security

By Thomas Fingar | Go to book overview

NOTES

Chapter 1

1. Financial Year 2010 NOAA Budget Highlights, Weather (National Weather Service) at www.corporateservices.noaa.gov/nbo/FY10_BlueBook/NWS_OnePager_ 050609.pdf.

2. Fiscal Year 2010 Budget in Brief, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention at www.hhs.gov/asrt/ob/docbudget/2010budgetinbriefg.html.

3. See, for example, U.S. Department of Agriculture, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, at www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf; and U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook Early Release Overview, Report No. DOE/EIA-0383 (2009), December 14, 2009, at www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ aeo/overview.html.

4. Office of the Director of National Intelligence, “DNI Releases Budget Figure for 2010 National Intelligence Program,” October 28, 2010, at www.dni.gov/press_ releases/20101028_2010_NIP_release.pdf.

5. See, for example, Dennis C. Blair, director of national intelligence, Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, February 2, 2010, at www.dni.gov/testimonies/20100202_testimony .pdf.

6. This point is discussed at greater length in Chapter 4.

7. This is not to suggest that scholars, journalists, bankers, diplomats, or many others who routinely ask questions and gather information are “spies.” “Spies” use clandestine or covert means to obtain information; the others cited here are what is known in the jargon of intelligence as “overt collectors,” and the information they collect and disseminate is referred to as “open-source intelligence” in Washington’s arcane way of referring to ordinary information.

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Reducing Uncertainty: Intelligence Analysis and National Security
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Title Page iii
  • Contents vii
  • Acknowledgments ix
  • 1 - Reducing Uncertainty 1
  • 2 - Myths, Fears, and Expectations 19
  • 3 - Spies Collect Data, Analysts Provide Insight 33
  • 4 - Using Intelligence to Anticipate Opportunities and Shape the Future 50
  • 5 - Estimative Analysis What It Is, What It Isn’T, and How to Read It 67
  • 6 - A Tale of Two Estimates 89
  • 7 - Epilogue- Lessons and Challenges 126
  • Reference Matter 139
  • Notes 141
  • Index 171
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