1. You can read the official final script of the Dark Winter exercise at http://www.upmc-biosecurity.org/pages/events/dark_winter. The information in this chapter was extracted (with minor dramatic license) from this script and from a published follow-up analysis of the exercise: Tara O’Connor, Michael Mair, and Thomas V. Inglesby, Shining Light on “Dark Winter,” Clinical Infectious Diseases, 34(2002):972.
2. The transmission rate of ten for a primary smallpox outbreak, for example, is likely half or less of that depicted in Dark Winter: Raymond Gani and Steve Leach, “Transmission Potential of Smallpox in Contemporary Populations,” Nature 414(2001):748. See also H. Pennington, “Smallpox and Bioterrorism,” Bulletin of the World Health Organization (2003) 81:762. Also, improvements in home as well as hospital care developed while the disease was still prevalent seem to have been ignored. For a detailed critique of exercises such as Dark Winter, and in particular Atlantic Storm, see Milton Leitenberg, Assessing the Biological Weapons and Bioterrorism Threat (Carlisle Barracks, PA: U.S. Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, 2005), 48–59. Available free at www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army. mil
1. See for example Leitenberg, Assessing. We will discuss this issue further in chapter 10.
2. Brian Jenkins, “Will Terrorists Go Nuclear?” Orbis 29 (Autumn 1985):511.
3. Numerous accounts have been written about the Rajneesh cult, but the most accurate is probably that found in Seth Carus, “The