1. Howard Kunreuther, “Risk Analysis and Risk Management in an Uncertain World,” Risk Analysis, 22(4) 2002: 662–663. See also John Mueller, “Some Reflections on What, If Anything, ‘Are We Safer?’ Might Mean,” cato-unbound. org? September 11, 2006.
2. Operatives: Gertz 2002; Sale 2002. Giuliani: CNN, July 22, 2005.
3. As he put it mockingly in a videotaped message in 2004, it is “easy for us to provoke and bait…. All that we have to do is to send two mujahidin… to raise a piece of cloth on which is written al-Qaeda in order to make the generals race there to cause America to suffer human, economic, and political losses.” His policy, he proclaimed, is one of “bleeding America to the point of bankruptcy,” triumphally pointing to the fact that the 9/11 terrorist attacks cost al-Qaeda $500,000, while the attack and its aftermath inflicted, he claims, “a cost of more than $500 billion on the United States” (Full transcript of bin Laden’s speech, aljazeera.net, October 30, 2004). However, this was not his original idea. Initially, he apparently expected that the United States would essentially under react to the 9/11 attacks. Impressed, in particular, with the American reaction to rather small losses in Lebanon in 1983 and in Somalia in 1993, he appears to have believed that the country would respond to an attack on itself by withdrawing from the Middle East (Wright 2006, 174, 200). Bin Ladin reformulated his theory after it was blown to shreds when the United States and its allies not only forced al-Qaeda out of its base in Afghanistan and captured or killed many of its main people but also toppled the accommodating Taliban regime there.
4. Government spending worldwide on homeland security reached a staggering $141.6 billion per year in 2009, about half of it by the United States (Global Homeland Security 2009–2019—Our New Defence Report Explains How and Why This Market Will Grow Strongly, Visiongain, June 2009). It is projected to reach $300 billion per year by 2016 (David Binning, “The Price of Homeland Security,” Army-technology.com, June 5, 2009).
5. Kean 2004, 391, 396.
6. Mayer 2009, 62.
7. Troy Anderson, “Terror May Be at Bay at Port; Shipping Hubs Too Vulnerable,” Daily News of Los Angeles, May 18, 2006.