This monograph is the second in a series of strategic studies conducted by the RAND Corporation for the U.S. Navy’s Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, Assessment Division (N81). The initial research was conducted in the summer and fall of 2006. Entitled “Evolving Strategic Trends, Implications for the U.S. Navy,” that first study was intended for a select Navy audience. It identified likely major global strategic trends in the next decade and how they might influence Navy planning. As a result of that study, N81 asked RAND to conduct a follow-on effort that focused primarily on the domestic trends of the United States, China, and Iran. The Navy wanted insights on how these important trends could influence U.S. security decisions in general and the Navy’s allocation of resources in particular.
Whereas the first strategic-trends study was primarily concerned with security-related issues around the world that could influence U.S. military planning, this monograph discusses internal, nonmilitary trends in the United States, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and Iran. The Navy is interested in these countries’ likely key “resource drivers” from now through roughly 2020–2025.1 Accordingly, we examined important domestic trends in each country—in demographics,
1 The period covered by data related to future economic and demographic projections for the United States, China, and Iran varied. In some cases, projections through 2020 were