Nuclear Deterrence in Europe: Russian Approaches to a New Environment and Implications for the United States

By James T. Quinlivan; Olga Oliker | Go to book overview

CHAPTER THREE
Russia’s Claimed Interests and Military Planning
in Europe

This chapter uses the elements in the past deterrent framework plus the element of endorsement by political authorities to examine why and how the Russians may be working to set up a deterrent framework with respect to the United States and the extent to which nuclear weapons figure in this framework. See Table 3.1 for a description of the framework. In developing and presenting this framework, we note

Table 3.1 Deterrent Framework Applied to Russian Military-Political Claims in Europe
Element of FrameworkDescription
Authoritative statement of claimed interestsAuthoritative statement by the highest government authorities of the country’s interests and purpose and how deployments of military forces reinforce these interests.
Military doctrine and practiceAuthoritative propagation of thought and doctrine through formal doctrinal publications and their reflection in research journals. Individual military personnel action (selection, promotion, or demotion) on the basis of known espousal of particular policy or doctrinal views.
Force development and postureDevelopment, serial production, and acquisition of weapon systems; organization and equipment of military forces. Creation of forces and their placement.
Major exercises and scenariosMajor field exercises showing plans and intent. Scenarios showing beliefs about the likelihood of various conflicts— particularly important when there are public explanations of scenario features and the connections to Russian actions.
Endorsement of doctrine, forces, and exercises by political authoritiesReaffirmation of the intent, military leadership, and performance demonstrated in published doctrine and major exercises.

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Nuclear Deterrence in Europe: Russian Approaches to a New Environment and Implications for the United States
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Title Page i
  • Preface iii
  • Content v
  • Figures and Tables vii
  • Summary ix
  • Acknowledgments xv
  • Abbreviations xvii
  • Chapter One - Introduction 1
  • Chapter Two - Elements of a Deterrent Framework 5
  • Chapter Three - Russia’s Claimed Interests and Military Planning in Europe 11
  • Chapter Four - An Emerging Russian Deterrent Framework? 65
  • Chapter Five - Implications for the United States 71
  • References 81
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