Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis

By Robert J. Lempert; Steven W. Popper et al. | Go to book overview

Chapter One
THE CHALLENGE OF LONG-TERM POLICY ANALYSIS

Our world confronts rapid and potentially profound transitions driven by social, economic, environmental, and technological change. Countries that have achieved political stability and wealth coexist uneasily among regions with fragile governments and economies whose people often live in dire poverty. Pressures grow on the natural environment. Technology has created tremendous opportunities but has also unleashed awesome destructive power more readily accessible than imagined a few decades ago. It is increasingly clear that today’s decisions could play a decisive role in determining whether the twenty-first century offers peace and prosperity or crisis and collapse.

In many areas of human endeavor one would be derelict in making important decisions without undertaking a systematic analysis of the available options. Before investing in a new business venture, managing a large financial portfolio, producing a new automobile, deploying a modern army, or crafting a nation’s economic policy one would identify a range of alternatives and use available information to make quantitative comparisons of the likely consequences of each alternative.

However, beyond a certain time horizon quantitative analysis is rarely attempted. For example, quantitative modeling of national economic performance informs fiscal policy only a few quarters away. In business planning, time frames longer than one year are considered strategic. Military planning looks farther ahead, yet defense analysis directed more than 10 years into the future is rare and longer than 15 years is virtually nonexistent.Civic planning

-1-

Notes for this page

Add a new note
If you are trying to select text to create highlights or citations, remember that you must now click or tap on the first word, and then click or tap on the last word.
One moment ...
Default project is now your active project.
Project items
Notes
Cite this page

Cited page

Style
Citations are available only to our active members.
Buy instant access to cite pages or passages in MLA 8, MLA 7, APA and Chicago citation styles.

(Einhorn, 1992, p. 25)

(Einhorn 25)

(Einhorn 25)

1. Lois J. Einhorn, Abraham Lincoln, the Orator: Penetrating the Lincoln Legend (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992), 25, http://www.questia.com/read/27419298.

Note: primary sources have slightly different requirements for citation. Please see these guidelines for more information.

Cited page

Bookmark this page
Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis
Table of contents

Table of contents

Settings

Settings

Typeface
Text size Smaller Larger Reset View mode
Search within

Search within this book

Look up

Look up a word

  • Dictionary
  • Thesaurus
Please submit a word or phrase above.
Print this page

Print this page

Why can't I print more than one page at a time?

Help
Full screen
Items saved from this book
  • Bookmarks
  • Highlights & Notes
  • Citations
/ 188

matching results for page

    Questia reader help

    How to highlight and cite specific passages

    1. Click or tap the first word you want to select.
    2. Click or tap the last word you want to select, and you’ll see everything in between get selected.
    3. You’ll then get a menu of options like creating a highlight or a citation from that passage of text.

    OK, got it!

    Cited passage

    Style
    Citations are available only to our active members.
    Buy instant access to cite pages or passages in MLA 8, MLA 7, APA and Chicago citation styles.

    "Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn, 1992, p. 25).

    "Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn 25)

    "Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn 25)

    "Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences."1

    1. Lois J. Einhorn, Abraham Lincoln, the Orator: Penetrating the Lincoln Legend (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992), 25, http://www.questia.com/read/27419298.

    Cited passage

    Thanks for trying Questia!

    Please continue trying out our research tools, but please note, full functionality is available only to our active members.

    Your work will be lost once you leave this Web page.

    Buy instant access to save your work.

    Already a member? Log in now.

    Search by... Author
    Show... All Results Primary Sources Peer-reviewed

    Oops!

    An unknown error has occurred. Please click the button below to reload the page. If the problem persists, please try again in a little while.