Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis

By Robert J. Lempert; Steven W. Popper et al. | Go to book overview

Appendix B
ASSESSING ROBUST STRATEGIES

This appendix provides more details on the assessment of robust strategies presented in Chapter Five.


REPRODUCING THE GSG SCENARIOS

The “Overview” section of Chapter Five reproduces the three Global Scenario Group (GSG) scenarios using the Wonderland scenario generator. Table B.1 lists the input parameter values that generate the time trajectories shown in Figure 5.2. The table divides the parameters into four categories: economy, population, environment, and the response of future decisionmakers. We chose the values used here through manual experimentation, starting with the nominal parameters values presented in Appendix A and making the minimal changes needed to reproduce as best as possible the economic and population trajectories shown in Figure 2.1. There is no claim that these are a unique set of parameters that reproduce the GSG scenarios.

The italicized entries in the table show parameters that differ among the three scenarios. In particular, Conventional World and Barbarization have faster overall economic growth rates, but the South reaches economic parity with the North 40 years earlier in Great Transitions. The exogenous decoupling rates in Barbarization are slower than in the other two futures. The rates at which an environmental collapse drags down the economy, Max_Rate_of_Decline, is higher in Barbarization than in the other two cases.

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