Federal Finances in the Coming Decade, Some Cumulative Possibilities, 1941-51

By Carl Shoup; Columbia University. Council for Research in the Social Sciences | Go to book overview

Chapter II
ASSUMPTIONS WITH RESPECT TO EXPENDITURES

ASSUMPTIONS UNDERLYING EXPENDITURES FIGURES

THE FEDERAL expenditures for the period 1941-51 as assumed in Tables 1 and 2 are the hypothetical data on which all other figures are based. But these expenditures themselves rest on some fundamental assumptions concerning the course of the war and the post-war economy which are listed below. They have been chosen from among a great number of perhaps equally likely possibilities for two reasons. First, they are apparently (as nearly as can be judged) the assumptions on which the present policy of the United States is based -- at least they are not inconsistent with that policy. Second, they tend somewhat to give a minimum rather than a maximum of total expenditures, and, from the viewpoint of research technique, a first effort in showing the quantitative relationships is easier to manage if the bias is set in that direction (but see No. 7 below). They are presented not as prophecies but as reasonable hypotheses, necessary to give real meaning to the problems and quantities involved in Federal fiscal policy. And some of the assumptions (especially Nos. 9 and 11) would not be equally reasonable under all fiscal policies.

This set of basic assumptions is:

-12-

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