Libya after Qaddafi: Lessons and Implications for the Future

By Christopher S. Chivvis; Jeffrey Martini | Go to book overview

CHAPTER SIX
Libya’s Future Path—Steps for the International
Community

The United States and its allies have both moral and strategic interests in ensuring that Libya does not collapse back into violence or become a haven for jihadist groups within striking distance of Europe. Increased terrorist violence in Libya would have a terrible impact on the already fragile Sahel region, which has become increasingly susceptible to jihadist activities in the last decade. A standoff between major militiabacked groups that plunges the country back into civil war would have similarly negative consequences, as would the emergence of another autocratic ruler of the Qaddafi mold. Needless to say, if Libya—or the broader region, for that matter—were to become a haven for terrorists, it would be a serious problem for the West.

In contrast, gradual political stabilization under representative government and constitutional rule would allow continued benefit from Libya’s energy and other resources, while greatly strengthening the region as a whole. Despite its current challenges, Libya still has many advantages when compared with other post-conflict societies that increase the chances that the situation there could improve. For example, it can still foot the bill for much of its post-conflict needs— even if it currently lacks the administrative capacity to manage complex payments to foreign entities. Its relatively small population is also a reason for optimism, as is its proximity to Europe. Many Libyans remain, moreover, generally pro-American in their outlook, general distrust of foreign influence notwithstanding.

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Libya after Qaddafi: Lessons and Implications for the Future
Table of contents

Table of contents

  • Title Page i
  • Preface iii
  • Contents v
  • Figures vii
  • Summary ix
  • Acknowledgments xv
  • Abbreviations xvii
  • Chapter One - Introduction 1
  • Chapter Two - Security after the War 7
  • Chapter Three - Statebuilding Challenges 35
  • Chapter Four - Economic Stabilization and the Oil Economy 53
  • Chapter Five - Alternative Strategies 65
  • Chapter Six - Libya’s Future Path—steps for the International Community 79
  • Bibliography 87
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