Business Forecasting: The Principles and Practice of Forecasting Business and Stock-Market Trends with Especial Reference to Business Cycles

By Lewis H. Haney | Go to book overview

CONTENTS
CHAPTERPAGE
I. Introduction and Economic Background1

Nature of forecasting and business · Business forecasting as a science · The economic background · Overproduction · "Normal" · Business fluctuations, seasonal and cyclical · Assumption of rationality · Ignorance, sentiment, desire of power, miscalculation · Our economic system

II. The Use of Statistics in Business Forecasting16

Index numbers and relatives · Advantages of absolutes, advantages of relatives, overcoming disadvantages of relatives · Time units, more than a year, annual and quarterly data, monthly data, weekly data, daily data · Curve smoothing, the moving average, selecting the time period, weighted moving average, average daily · Long-time trend · Methods of determining seasonal variation, definition and causes, advantages of removing, limitations, procedure in computing · Standard deviation · Correlation

III. Business Measurements: Production, Building, and Imports55

Classes of measurements · Total supply · Industrial production · Representative groups · Single representative factors, employment, electrical power, pig-iron production, blast furnace activity, building activity, imports, stocks of commodities

IV. Business Measurements: Car-loadings, Bank Debits, Sales, Shipments, and Foreign Trade85

Measurements of trade, car-loadings, bank debits, wholesale trade, retail trade · Sales of particular commodities, machine tool orders, Babbitt metal, steel castings and sheets, finished cotton goods, sanitary enameled ware, automobiles, real estate · Shipments · Unfilled orders · Exports and imports · Commodity prices, standard monthly indexes, sensitive monthly indexes, selected commodities · Weekly indexes · Particular commodity indexes · Price indexes classified according to purpose

V. Business Measurements: Money and Banking, Failures, and the Stock Market114

Measurements of bank credit, loans and discounts, total bills and securities · Commercial loans · Brokers' loans · Federal Reserve ratio · Loan-deposit ratio · Money rates · The bond yield · Turnover of bank deposits · Business failures · The stock market

-ix-

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