Welsh-Born Economist Wins Nobel; Popular and Respected Professor Devised Brilliant Model for Economic Forecasting
A SWANSEA-BORN academic has been awarded the Nobel Prize for Economics.
Professor Clive Granger shared the prize with his colleague, American Robert F Engle. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences said they had been awarded the honour for their 'use of statistical methods for economic time series'.
Their research has led to great improvements in economic forecasting.
Professor Granger was born in Swansea in 1934, but moved away from Wales as a child and completed his education at West Bridgeford Grammar School, in Nottingham.
He then went to Nottingham University, becoming one of the initial intake into the first-ever joint degree in economics and mathematics.
After graduating in 1955, Prof Granger remained at Nottingham University, becoming a lecturer in statistics in the Mathematics Department.
He moved to the US in 1974 to a professorship in the Economics Department at the University of California at San Diego, where he worked alongside Professor Engle and continues to work today.
Economist Professor James Davidson of Cardiff University knows both men well. He explained that the work carried out by Prof Granger had made a great contribution to economic forecasting carried out by organisations like the Bank of England.
'The business that they have contributed to is, to put it in layman's terms, economic forecasting,' he explained.
Prof Davidson said that one of the key things their research had focused on was 'co-integration'.
'Co-integration is the sort of things the Bank of England do for macro-economic forecasting,' he explained.
'People didn't really know how to do that before. Granger put two and two together - it was a brand new idea about the way in which you model economic relations. …