Health-Related Benefits of Attaining the 8-Hr Ozone Standard
Hubbell, Bryan J., Hallberg, Aaron, McCubbin, Donald R., Post, Ellen, Environmental Health Perspectives
During the 2000-2002 time period, between 36 and 56% of ozone monitors each year in the United States failed to meet the current ozone standard of 80 ppb for the fourth highest maximum 8-hr ozone concentration. We estimated the health benefits of attaining the ozone standard at these monitors using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program. We used health impact functions based on published epidemiologic studies, and valuation functions derived from the economics literature. The estimated health benefits for 2000 and 2001 are similar in magnitude, whereas the results for 2002 are roughly twice that of each of the prior 2 years. The simple average of health impacts across the 3 years includes reductions of 800 premature deaths, 4,500 hospital and emergency department admissions, 900,000 school absences, and > 1 million minor restricted activity days. The simple average of benefits (including premature mortality) across the 3 years is $5.7 billion [90% confidence interval (CI), 0.6-15.0] for the quadratic rollback simulation method and $4.9 billion (90% CI, 0.5-14.0) for the proportional rollback simulation method. Results are sensitive to the form of the standard and to assumptions about background ozone levels. If the form of the standard is based on the first highest maximum 8-hr concentration, impacts are increased by a factor of 2-3. Increasing the assumed hourly background from zero to 40 ppb reduced impacts by 30 and 60% for the proportional and quadratic attainment simulation methods, respectively. Key words: air pollution, benefit analysis, health impact assessment, ozone, standards. doi:10.1289/ehp.7186 available via http://dx.doi.org/[Online 7 October 2004]
The Clean Air Act [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 19701 identified tropospheric ozone as one of six "criteria pollutants"--pervasive pollutants considered harmful to human health. Tropospheric ozone forms as a result of atmospheric reactions of nitrogen oxides (NO.,.) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the presence of sunlight. Both local emissions sources, such as traffic, and emissions transported from upwind sources, such as electric utilities, contribute to ambient ozone levels in populated areas.
In 1997, the U.S. EPA changed the ozone standard to 80 ppb to reflect new scientific studies showing that ozone causes health effects at levels lower than the previous 120 ppb standard. Additionally, the form of the standard was changed to reflect studies showing that exposure times longer than 1 hr are of" concern. The U.S. EPA set the form of the standard, which is the threshold for compliance and violations, at the fourth highest daily maximum 8-hr average occurring each year, averaged over a 3-year period.
New scientific studies published since 1996 have increased the body of evidence supporting the association between ambient ozone and a number of serious health effects (Anderson et al. 2004). For example, studies examining the association between ambient ozone and premature mortality have increased the weight of evidence supporting this important health impact (Anderson et al. 2004; Thurston and Ito 2001).
Our purpose for this analysis was to assess the human health benefits of attaining the 8-hr ozone standard. We applied a damage function approach similar to those used in several recent U.S. EPA regulatory impact analyses, including those for the proposed Clean Air Interstate Rule and the final Clean Air Nonroad Diesel Rule (U.S. EPA 2004a, 2004b). We focused the assessment on the benefits that might have been achieved if current monitored ozone levels (represented by the years 2000-2002) were reduced just to the levels required to meet the 8-hr standard. We conducted analyses to examine the sensitivity of our results to a number of different assumptions about the form of the standard, background levels of ozone, methods for simulating attainment of the 8-hr ozone standard, and the choice of health effects and effect estimates from published epidemiologic studies. …