Cullen Faces Tough Calls

By James, Colin | New Zealand Management, April 2006 | Go to article overview

Cullen Faces Tough Calls


James, Colin, New Zealand Management


After the binge comes the hangover. Next month s Budget is a case in point. The 2005 election was a throwback to 1970s-style spend-it-all campaigning. National spent up to the eyeballs in tax cuts, Labour in tax relief via Working for Families, interest rate relief via student loans, swags of money for hip operations and much, much else.

Then Labour did lavish post-election deals with Winston Peters: a toll-free second Tauranga Harbour Bridge, one percent on pensions, 1000 more police and racing tax relief. In December it abandoned the carbon tax, by then so full of holes it couldn't deliver on its original purpose.

This extravagance wouldn't matter so much if the economy was set to steam along at its pre-election speed. But it is not. And because a good deal of the pre-election head of steam was unwise consumer borrowing, the trough we are now heading into will be longer and/or deeper than it might have been if consumers had eased off earlier.

The slowdown will have two significant impacts on revenue and one on spending. Personal income tax growth will slow as employment growth slows or reverses. Company income tax receipts will plummet as profits are squeezed between stuttering consumer spending and cost rises, including wage and rising import costs as the dollar falls.

The risk, economists say, is overwhelmingly on the downside--that is, that revenue will be lower than the Treasury's comforting projections back in December. The coded messages from Michael Cullen this year suggest the Treasury's projections in next month's Budget documents will reflect that risk--that is, they will be less comforting than in December.

Cullen is jealous of his self-awarded reputation for careful budgeting and maintaining surpluses. So is Clark, the daughter of thrifty Waikato farmers.

Cullen regards himself as a modern Keynesian. So he let the surpluses pile up during the good times. His second-term Budgets leaned against those good times by sucking more out of the economy than they put in. That, he has said, is "letting the automatic stabilisers" work.

His problem lay in estimating how much of the surpluses were the automatic stabilisers and how much might be a structural improvement and thus dispensable by way of tax cuts or long-term spending.

National's huge tax cuts in effect assessed the 2005/06 surplus as largely structural improvement. …

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