Land Absorption in U.S. Metropolitan Areas: Estimates and Projections from Regional Adjustment Models

By Carruthers, John I.; Mulligan, Gordon F. | Geographical Analysis, January 2007 | Go to article overview

Land Absorption in U.S. Metropolitan Areas: Estimates and Projections from Regional Adjustment Models


Carruthers, John I., Mulligan, Gordon F., Geographical Analysis


This article adapts a regional adjustment model to estimate and project the spatial outcome of population and employment growth in U.S. metropolitan areas. The three-equation multiplicative model of population change, employment change, and land absorption is estimated using three-stage least squares to account for endogeneity among the dependent variables and contemporaneous correlation across the system of equations. In addition to the core model, alternative specifications are estimated, imposing the initial conditions of size, land availability, and economic structure. The stability of the solutions is then examined using reduced-form equations estimated via the seemingly unrelated regression equations approach. The results reveal substantive evidence that population and employment growth are jointly determined, of how the two affect the outcome of land development, and, perhaps most importantly, stable and fractionally reasonable estimates at projected equilibrium points. Lastly, the adapted model controlling for the initial condition of land availability is used to project patterns of land consumption at equilibrium in 50 rapid-growth metropolitan areas.

Introduction

This article adapts a regional adjustment model to estimate and project spatially explicit outcomes of population and employment growth in U.S. metropolitan areas. The main idea is that, just as people follow jobs into and/or within regions, jobs follow people. From this point of departure, population (employment) change between two points in time is modeled as a function of employment (population) at the end of the time period, population (employment) at the beginning of the time period, and a set of other relevant exogenous variables. The approach is described as an adjustment model because it portrays population and employment adjusting toward some unknown future state of spatial equilibrium. If this point were ever reached, all individuals and firms would be distributed in such a way that their utility and profits, respectively, were maximized with respect to location. As neither of these conditions presently exists, researchers commonly describe the space economy as being in a state of partial equilibrium, constantly adjusting to an ideal distribution of economic activity.

Regional adjustment models normally portray this process via a system of two simultaneous equations in which population and employment change, the dependent variables, are jointly determined (Steinnes and Fisher 1974; Carlino and Mills 1987; Boarnet 1994a, b; Clark and Murphy 1996). Within this framework, densities instead of levels are used in order to reduce heteroskedasticity introduced by inevitable variation in the size of the spatial units involved, but the denominator often does not accurately describe a geographically relevant area, and, moreover, it usually remains constant through time. The boundaries of the most common units of analysis, including cities, counties, states, and even census tracts, can encompass a vicinity well beyond that which is actually occupied--especially in expansive Western counties and in states with liberal annexation laws, where municipalities may easily extend their jurisdiction outward. Further, due to the fact that the size of most of these units changes only incrementally, if at all, through time, they offer little or no insight into the nature of spatial outcomes associated with the process of regional development.

Responding to these issues, the present analysis alters the traditional regional adjustment model framework in several important ways. First, the model draws on land-use data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Natural Resources Inventory to define more precisely the area occupied by economic activity: Counties are the unit of analysis, but only a proportion of their total land area is used as the spatial unit. Second, instead of densities, measured as people (employees) per acre, the analysis is concerned with land absorption, measured as acres per person (employee). …

The rest of this article is only available to active members of Questia

Already a member? Log in now.

Notes for this article

Add a new note
If you are trying to select text to create highlights or citations, remember that you must now click or tap on the first word, and then click or tap on the last word.
One moment ...
Default project is now your active project.
Project items

Items saved from this article

This article has been saved
Highlights (0)
Some of your highlights are legacy items.

Highlights saved before July 30, 2012 will not be displayed on their respective source pages.

You can easily re-create the highlights by opening the book page or article, selecting the text, and clicking “Highlight.”

Citations (0)
Some of your citations are legacy items.

Any citation created before July 30, 2012 will labeled as a “Cited page.” New citations will be saved as cited passages, pages or articles.

We also added the ability to view new citations from your projects or the book or article where you created them.

Notes (0)
Bookmarks (0)

You have no saved items from this article

Project items include:
  • Saved book/article
  • Highlights
  • Quotes/citations
  • Notes
  • Bookmarks
Notes
Cite this article

Cited article

Style
Citations are available only to our active members.
Buy instant access to cite pages or passages in MLA, APA and Chicago citation styles.

(Einhorn, 1992, p. 25)

(Einhorn 25)

1. Lois J. Einhorn, Abraham Lincoln, the Orator: Penetrating the Lincoln Legend (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992), 25, http://www.questia.com/read/27419298.

Cited article

Land Absorption in U.S. Metropolitan Areas: Estimates and Projections from Regional Adjustment Models
Settings

Settings

Typeface
Text size Smaller Larger Reset View mode
Search within

Search within this article

Look up

Look up a word

  • Dictionary
  • Thesaurus
Please submit a word or phrase above.
Print this page

Print this page

Why can't I print more than one page at a time?

Help
Full screen

matching results for page

    Questia reader help

    How to highlight and cite specific passages

    1. Click or tap the first word you want to select.
    2. Click or tap the last word you want to select, and you’ll see everything in between get selected.
    3. You’ll then get a menu of options like creating a highlight or a citation from that passage of text.

    OK, got it!

    Cited passage

    Style
    Citations are available only to our active members.
    Buy instant access to cite pages or passages in MLA, APA and Chicago citation styles.

    "Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn, 1992, p. 25).

    "Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn 25)

    "Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences."1

    1. Lois J. Einhorn, Abraham Lincoln, the Orator: Penetrating the Lincoln Legend (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992), 25, http://www.questia.com/read/27419298.

    Cited passage

    Thanks for trying Questia!

    Please continue trying out our research tools, but please note, full functionality is available only to our active members.

    Your work will be lost once you leave this Web page.

    Buy instant access to save your work.

    Already a member? Log in now.

    Oops!

    An unknown error has occurred. Please click the button below to reload the page. If the problem persists, please try again in a little while.