Blas, Javier, The National Interest
FOOD. MAN'S most-essential resource. And now a cause of war? For years, strategists, policy makers and the rest of the foreign-policy cadre worried the world's vanishing resources would be the cause of conflict. But of course, with energy assets concentrated in the Middle East and crude-oil prices rising from a historical average of $18 a barrel to more than $100 a barrel today, most scenarios centered on a war over oil. At their most imaginative, people have planned for water shortages as a trigger. What no one seemed to be expecting was serious political instability caused by a lack of food.
This is not just threat mongering. Experts around the world have voiced concern. Horst Seehofer, Germany's agriculture minister, has warned that "food conflicts" lurk around the corner. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon recently told a conference that "if not handled properly, this crisis could result in a cascade" of others. It could become % multidimensional problem affecting economic growth, social progress and even political security around the world." Josette Sheeran, head of the World Food Program (WFP), added that riots in more than thirty countries were "stark reminders that food insecurity threatens not only the hungry but peace and stability itself." The World Bank estimates that about 100 million people in 2007 were absorbed into the ranks of the poor and hungry because of the surge in food costs, reversing rich countries' steady efforts to halve global hunger by 2015. Jacques Diouf, head of the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), said in April he was surprised the UN Security Council had not yet called on him to explain the crisis.
Food shortages and price increases have a long history of triggering political turmoil. They were precursors to the French revolutionary movements in the 1700s, and they played a key role in Egypt's 1977 popular uproar--the bread intifada--which challenged President Anwar el-Sadat's rule. But it looked like the problem was solved because the last time food prices were even considered an issue was twenty years ago, when the world's seven richest countries met at their 1987 summit in Venice, Italy. But then, the concern was low prices and "agricultural commodities in surplus," rather than scarcity and inflation.
The cozy notion that our food problems are over is under assault after prices, measured by the FAO's index, jumped almost 60 percent in the last year. Staples such as wheat, corn, soybeans and rice, for decades considered abundant, are today scarce and much-more expensive. Although it is unlikely that the ongoing food crisis will trigger full-scale wars, it is clear rising food prices have become a threat to global stability, shaking several poor countries' governments and disrupting international trade.
In the first-few months of 2008, the government of Haiti fell amid sharp price increases in staples, particularly rice. Countries as far apart as Egypt and Bangladesh suffered riots. Indeed, according to the World Bank, up to thirty-five countries have experienced food riots, and many more have been forced to make policy U-turns--increasing subsidies, raising civil-servant salaries or restricting basic-foods trade.
TWO LONG-term trends are at the heart of this current crisis: swelling demand and sluggish supply growth. What we see now, ironically, is that the rise in global demand for food has come about as a result of the successes of globalization. The subsequent reduction in world poverty, growth of emerging countries like China--large purchasers of protein foodstuffs such as dairy products or meat--and increases in wealth there all left a sharp increase in demand.
At the same time, though, there were mass decreases in production. Farming productivity slowed down after years of strong growth because of a reduction in global research in new high-yielding seeds and decreased spending in agronomics like irrigation. …