A Bridge to the Renewable Energy Future: Renewables Are Coming Fast. in the Meantime, Here's a Largely Overlooked but Potent Way to Minimize Fossil Fuel Use and the Damage It Causes
Ayres, Robert U., Ayres, Ed, World Watch
Historically, Americans have been strong on big ideas, but not always so strong on the devil in the detail. So, for example, public officials looking for alternatives to imported oil have widely embraced corn ethanol, even though a range of studies assessed by the Natural Resources Defense Council and others show that corn ethanol has a nearly zero net gain in energy output, while taking a heavy toll on human food-producing capacity. Or, many of those looking for "energy independence" still embrace the John McCain mantra to "drill, baby, drill," perhaps because the notion of increased domestic oil output comes across as a manly defiance of the Middle-Eastern chokehold on our gas pumps. More domestic oil might be an attractive concept, except that the numbers say it would add nothing to our energy supply in the next 10 years and would never come close to replacing imports. (The U.S. Department of Energy estimates that U.S. territories, including coastal waters, have 3 percent of the known remaining global oil reserves.) That latter fact has provided Al Gore and others an opening for their claim that renewables, in contrast to more oil drilling, could bring America to full energy independence in a decade. But that claim, too, betrays an embrace of broad concept that isn't completely realistic about numbers.
What can renewables in the United States really do in 10 years? The Gore vision has been facilitated by the observation that renewables are growing spectacularly fast, much faster than any fossil fuel. But of course, that's percentage-wise, not in gigawatts or barrels of oil-equivalent. The hard truth is that renewables have started from such a tiny base that even with exponential growth it will take a long time for them to take over a large share of the work now done by coal, oil, and natural gas. The picture is also skewed by the fact that at present, the lion's share of renewable energy is provided by hydroelectric power, which cannot significantly expand. Virtually all of the U.S. rivers that have significant hydro potential are already dammed. The percentages of U.S. energy provided by the other renewable sources, as of 2006, were as follows: biofuels 1.4, windpower 0.8, solar photovoltaic (PV) 0.4, and geothermal 0.1. Of these, only the three zero-something resources are carbon-free (biofuels may add to supply, but also add to emissions).
Of course, emissions-free renewables have continued to grow fast since then, and the expansion will likely continue. President Obama has called for a doubling of solar power in three years. But even assuming that could be kept up for the next decade, it would still bring solar power to only about 13 percent of U.S. energy supply. Moreover, achieving the clean-energy future is not just a matter of expanding clean-energy production; it also requires massive rebuilding of infrastructure--the electric power grid, recharging stations for electric cars, retooling of car manufacturing, the factories to build next-generation batteries and fuel cells, expansion of public transit systems, and so on. Not all of this will happen as fast as the growth in solar PV capacity has been. The production of tellurium, an essential component of the most advanced thin-film PV panels, could become a major bottleneck, for example. Tellurium is very scarce, much scarcer even than platinum, and any limitation in the supply could put a drag on expansion of PV capacity.
However you figure it, the U.S. economy will still be heavily dependent on coal and oil 10 years from now, and for many years after that. Yet, in the meantime, the internal combustion engine-powered auto industry is plagued with overcapacity, coal is ravaging the climate, and global oil production is likely to peak and begin its terminal decline even as demand for it is expanding hugely in China and worldwide. So as demand begins to dwarf supply, fossil-fuel prices will rise inexorably during a period when renewables will not yet have the capacity to take over. …