The Data: Demographic Shifts between Now and 2050

Financial Management (UK), January-February 2011 | Go to article overview

The Data: Demographic Shifts between Now and 2050


TREND 1

THE GLOBAL POPULATION CONTINUES TO INCREASE, BUT THIS GROWTH IS REGION-SPECIFIC.

The world's population is on course to reach 7 billion in 2011 and 9.07 billion by 2050--an estimated 62 per cent of which will be living in Africa, South Asia and East Asia.

TREND 2

THE SOUTH HEADS NORTH

An estimated 2.2 million migrants will arrive in the developed world every year from now until 2050, according to the UN, driven by economic disparities and the effects of climate change.

TREND 3

LOW BIRTH RATES IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES AND HIGH BIRTH RATES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

For example, although the populations of Germany and Ethiopia are currently almost equal, annual births number 3.3 million in Ethiopia versus 650,000 in Germany.

TREND 4

EUROPE'S DEMOGRAPHIC IMPORTANCE CONTINUES TO DECLINE

Europe accounted for 13.3 per cent of the world's population in 1960 but only 7.5 per cent in 2005. By 2050 it will have dropped to 5 per cent.

TREND 5

THE WORLD IS GETTING OLDER

In 1950, 8 per cent of the population was over the age of 60. By 2050 it will be 22 per cent--that's two billion more elderly people than there are today.

In 1998 over-60s in the developed world outnumbered under-15s for the first time. In 2047 the same thing will happen worldwide

471m

344m

North America

Population mid-2010: 344 million Population mid-2050: 471 million

In 1950 there were 12 people of working age for every person 65 and over. …

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