Evaluation of a Heat Vulnerability Index on Abnormally Hot Days: An Environmental Public Health Tracking Study
Reid, Colleen E., Mann, Jennifer K., Alfasso, Ruth, English, Paul B., King, Galatea C., Lincoln, Rebecca A., Margolis, Helene G., Rubado, Dan J., Sabato, Joseph E., West, Nancy L., Woods, Brian, Navarro, Kathleen M., Balmes, John R., Environmental Health Perspectives
BACKGROUND: Extreme hot weather conditions have been associated with increased morbidity and mortality, but risks are not evenly distributed throughout the population. Previously, a heat vulnerability index (HVI) was created to geographically locate populations with increased vulnerability to heat in metropolitan areas throughout the United States.
OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine whether areas with higher heat vulnerability, as characterized by the HVI, experienced higher rates of morbidity and mortality on abnormally hot days.
METHODS: We used Poisson regression to model the interaction of HVI and deviant days (days whose deviation of maximum temperature from the 30-year normal maximum temperature is at or above the 95th percentile) on hospitalization and mortality counts in five states participating in the Environmental Public Health Tracking Network for the years 2000 through 2007.
RESULTS: The HVI was associated with higher hospitalization and mortality rates in all states on both normal days and deviant days. However, associations were significantly stronger (interaction p-value < 0.05) on deviant days for heat-related illness, acute renal failure, electrolyte imbalance, and nephritis in California, heat-related illness in Washington, all-cause mortality in New Mexico, and respiratory hospitalizations in Massachusetts.
CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the HVI may be a marker of health vulnerability in general, although it may indicate greater vulnerability to heat in some cases.
KEY WORDS: climate change, extreme heat, hospitalizations, mortality, vulnerable populations. Environ Health Perspect 120:715-720 (2012). http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1103766 [Online 31 January 2012]
There is considerable evidence of elevated mortality, and increasing evidence of increased morbidity, associated with heat waves and extreme hot weather conditions (Basu 2009; Basu and Samet 2002). Particular population subgroups are at increased risk of mortality during extreme heat, including the elderly (Fouillet et al. 2006; Medina-Ramon et al. 2006), people of lower socioeconomic status (Curriero et al. 2002; Naughton et al. 2002; Rey et al. 2009), people who live alone (Naughton et al. 2002; Semenza et al. 1996), people with less education (Medina-Ramon et al. 2006; O'Neill et al. 2003), people of races other than white (O'Neill et al. 2003; Schwartz 2005; Whitman et al. 1997), people with preexisting health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, renal disease, nervous disorders, cerebrovascular disease, pulmonary conditions, and mental health conditions (Schwartz 2005; Semenza a al. 1996, 1999; Stafoggia et al. 2006, 2008), people without access to cooling devices such as air conditioning (Chestnut et al. 1998; Curriero et al. 2002; Semenza et al. 1996), and people in neighborhoods with less green space (Kilbourne et al. 1982; Tan et al. 2007).
Heat waves are projected to increase in frequency, severity, and duration in many parts of the world because of climate change (Meehl and Tebaldi 2004). Municipal interventions to prevent heat-related deaths have been shown to decrease mortality in subsequent heat events (Ebi et al. 2004; Fouillet et al. 2008; Naughton et al. 2002). There is some question, however, as to whether the most vulnerable populations are being reached by these interventions (Bassil and Cole 2010). Although there is an increased understanding by city governments of the need to have heat warning plans, they have also expressed their desire for more information to develop and implement such plans (Balbus et al. 2008; O'Neill et al. 2010).
Maps that identify which populations and areas within a city are most vulnerable to heat can help local governments allocate resources to the areas in greatest need (O'Neill et al. 2009). Reid et al. (2009) created a national heat vulnerability index (HVI) to locate populations vulnerable to heat at the submetropolitan level using variables associated with vulnerability in previous studies. …