The Critique of Pure Kagan
Preble, Christopher, The National Interest
Robert Kagan, The World America Made (New York: Knopf, 2012), 160 pp., $21.00.
For nearly two decades, Robert Kagan has opined about U.S. foreign policy. The author of five books and many articles, including a monthly column in the Washington Post, he is a fixture in the foreign-policy establishment with bipartisan influence in Washington. A foreign-policy adviser to Mitt Romney today, as he was to John McCain in 2008, he even has found favor in the Obama administration. He also can boast popular appeal: Of Paradise and Power (2003) spent more than two months on the New York Times best-seller list. Active in small neoconservative organizations, he was one of only two people (the other was his frequent coauthor William Kristol) to have signed all thirteen letters and public statements issued by the Project for a New American Century, and he is on the board of directors of its successor organization, the Foreign Policy Initiative. But he also has managed to thrive within large, established think tanks such as the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Brookings Institution, where he is currently a senior fellow.
Kagan's latest offering, The World America Made, is a cri de coeur directed at a foreign-policy establishment beset by doubts and a wider public harboring even deeper ones. In both tone and substance, the book is aimed at soothing American anxieties over the nation's fiscal and geopolitical future. In some respects, his diagnosis is sound--the scope of American decline is often exaggerated and not to be celebrated. But in several critical respects, Kagan's prescriptions for the present and future of U.S. foreign policy are shortsighted at best, harmful at worst.
The most important of these is his rejection of calls for the United States to reduce military spending, recalibrate its global commitments and restrain its interventionist impulses. Kagan scorns the suggestion that we are entering a post-American world with multiple power centers as opposed to the single U.S. hegemon. On one hand, dismissing claims that America is in decline, he points to past periods of soul-searching and self-doubt where public sentiment was far more pessimistic and from which America emerged stronger than ever. On the other hand, he challenges those who look upon American decline with equanimity and questions their "expectation, if not assumption, ... that the good qualities of [the present world] order--the democracy, the prosperity, the peace among great powers--can transcend the decline of American power and influence."
He advises the United States to continue on its present course, maintain its global posture, and retain or expand alliance relationships negotiated during the Cold War. But here is a key point: Kagan concedes that Americans could opt for a different course. We could shed our global burdens, focus on rebuilding the country's strength at home and expect--or merely hope--that others will uphold the liberal order as American power retreats. That we are afforded such a choice today is itself a historical anomaly--and something of a luxury. "Someday," Kagan suggests, "we may have no choice but to watch it drift away." In the meantime, we don't have to--and he hopes that we do not.
It is a familiar refrain. But, as with Kagan's earlier works, The World America Made combines questionable international-relations theory, questionable economics and questionable politics. To the extent that Kagan has had a hand in building today's world, he has constructed it around too much military capacity in the hands of a single power and too little capacity in the hands of nearly everyone else. The result is a wide and growing gap between the promises Washington has made to protect others from harm and America's political will to honor those promises if they ever come due.
The world is both more complicated and more durable than Kagan imagines. …