Strengthening Economy to Boost Global Advertising Growth to 2015
ZenithOptimedia predicts global advertising expenditure will grow by 3.9% in 2013, reaching US$518 billion by the end of the year. As has been the case since the start of the economic downturn in 2007, this growth will be led by Rising Markets, which we forecast to grow by 8.2% on average in 2013, while the Mature Markets grow by just 1.8%, weighed down by the eurozone crisis. Over the next two years, we expect growth to pick up in both Rising and Mature Markets, reaching 9.4% and 3.5% respectively in 2015.
(ZenithOtimedia defines Mature Markets as North America, Western Europe, and Japan, and Rising Makets as everywhere else. Fast-Track Asia includes China, India, Malaysia, Pakistan, the Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam)
The firm said that "the consensus among economic forecasters is that the global economy will gradually build up speed over the next three years. The eurozone should start to pull out of recession towards the end of this year, which will help stimulate world trade. We expect the global ad market to strengthen in step with the economy, although ad expenditure growth will remain behind GDP growth for the rest of our forecast period. Our forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are unchanged at 5.0% and 5.6% respectively".
Internet advertising driving growth Internet advertising is supplying most of the growth in expenditure by medium, driven by technical innovations, such as better measurement of exposure to advertising, greater localization, and integration with mobile devices. We forecast internet advertising to grow by 14.4% in 2013, while traditional media will grow by 1.6%.
Display is the fastest growing medium within internet advertising, with annual growth of 20%. This is being driven by the rapid rise of online video and social media advertising, each of which is growing at about 30% per year. Continued innovation among the search engines - including richer product information and images within ads - is seeing a healthy rise in paid search. We predict paid search to grow by 13% a year to 2015. …