Complex Evaluation of the Economic Crisis Impact on Lithuanian Industries
Krivka, Algirdas, Journal of Business Economics and Management
Nowadays economic reality, characterised by growing countries' and regions' economic integration, globalization of business relations, free movement of capital and labour force, offers wide possibilities for the social and economic development of market economy countries and for increasing the welfare of their citizens. Expansion of financial markets together with growing banking sector assure the sources of financing business setting up and further development; diminishing barriers of international trade provide access to new markets for companies and satisfaction of growing needs for customers with a wide variety of goods and services.
Although there is a little doubt about the advantages of international economic integration, a few recent years have shown in practice the other side of the coin. In 2007 the crisis, which initially affected the financial system of the United States, shortly spread all over the world and stimulated the economic recession, with both business and ordinary citizens suffering from its consequences (Thao et al. 2013; Kowalski 2012). In many countries the financial crisis caused a rapid decrease in tax revenues, while austerity measures in fiscal policy (raising taxes and cutting public spending) applied by governments even deepened the economic problems (Adam, Iacob 2012).
The Republic of Lithuania was amongst the countries to experience the deepest economic downturn: according to GDP data, the economic crisis, which started in the end of 2008, caused the fall of the annual GDP by 14.8 % in 2009 (Statistics Lithuania 2013). It has to be admitted that deep recession was stimulated not only by the global economic crisis, but also by the internal specifics of the national economy evolution, and particularly because of the economy overheating and real estate price bubble caused by irresponsible lending and speculation. Though the first signs of economic recovery appeared in the 2nd quarter of 2010, the country's economic growth remained very slow during the last 3 years, while the GDP of 2012 is still under the pre-crisis level of 2007.
It has to be mentioned though, that GDP dynamics and other macroeconomic indicators provide general information only about the impact of the economic crisis, whereas even with a naked eye one may indicate the dissimilar effect of the crisis on various industries, also unequal rates of after-crisis recovery. Possibly uneven development of Lithuanian industries during the economic crisis of 2008 and afterwards, in the author's opinion, requires calculation-based evaluation with its results providing more detailed and scientifically grounded information about the impact of the recent crisis on business enterprises.
The problem of this paper is the complex quantitative evaluation of the economic crisis impact on industries. The aim of the research is to complexly evaluate the impact of the economic crisis of 2008 on Lithuanian industries on the basis of the system of quantitative indicators characterising enterprise's financial state and performance. Relying on scientific literature the system of industry research criteria is developed, while relative weights of the criteria are estimated by involving competent experts. By applying multi-criteria decision making methods (MCDM) relative positions (ranks) of Lithuanian industries are determined for every year of the period of 2006-2011. The ranks and their changes are further analysed distinguishing pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis periods, determining the industries most and least affected by the economic crisis; also, the industries characterised by the fastest and the slowest after-crisis recovery.
1. Literature review
Modern quantitative methods of enterprise performance analysis are based on the company's financial reports: horizontal analysis of enterprise financial statements studying accounts' dynamics during several periods; vertical analysis--a study of the structure of enterprise assets, equity and liabilities, and their changes; analysis of financial ratios--the indicators, characterising enterprise's financial state and performance, are calculated, compared through different accounting periods, between various companies, also with their recommended values (Hofmann, Lampe 2012; Erdogan 2013; Kotane, Kuzmina-Merlino 2012; Hegazy, M. …