The Risk Assessment Method in Prognostic Models of Production Systems Management with Account of the Time Factor

By Mylnikov, Leonid; Kuetz, Martin | European Research Studies, September 2017 | Go to article overview

The Risk Assessment Method in Prognostic Models of Production Systems Management with Account of the Time Factor


Mylnikov, Leonid, Kuetz, Martin, European Research Studies


1. Introduction

The implementation of projects in production systems (PS) raises new needs and requests for products manufacture, as well as production facilities meeting the special requirements of the PS. At the same time, implementation of any changes takes place in a strictly limited time and budget. One can often observe a phenomenon when for the introduction of new projects and developments necessitates the creation of subsidiaries or the projects being implemented are considered as independent ones with the same resources or goals as for other works.

In each project like this it is necessary to solve management and planning problems, taking into account available resources, environmental factors, and a strategic plan for the PS development (Markina and Diachkov, 2014).

At the same time, individual numerical estimates and decisions start to play a lesser role in management and taking managerial decisions, whereas the importance of qualitative and integrated assessments is increasing. The increasing volumes of accumulated information led to the emergence of certain tasks of parameters: monitoring and forecasting, creating systems for monitoring the dynamics of changes in parameters and matching their values with the planned ones (Kaiser et al., 2011).

According to the international rating of production competitiveness for 2016, the use of predictive models in management has the greatest impact on the competitiveness of industrial production. This has allowed the USA and China to take the leading positions in industrial competitiveness over the last 5 years. However, this problem has not been fully solved by now.

The methods of objective decision-making under conditions of limited time are required for solving planning problems when implementing PS projects have not been fully developed. Dealing with these problems, one faces the challenge of NP-completeness and can solve them using approximate methods only. This increases the importance of risk assessment with regard for the time factor when using the forecast values in planning tasks, the time variation factor with account of the ranges of permissible values and their fuzzy PS nature as well as the specifics of production in joint pricing, master production scheduling, procurement management, etc (Golovina and Uvarova, 2014).

The development of the concepts of Industry 4.0 and IIoTenables to gather data on each unit of equipment and to timely manage production processes in the PS (Arnold et al., 2016), thus facilitating the development of industrial engineering methods.

In this regard, one should keep in mind that reaching target values is not a one-step process, but rather a trajectory of interdependent states. Moreover, target values themselves change over time and can be represented by a set of values dealing with different types of relationships (Mia and Winata, 2014; Kosinova et al., 2016). Management problems should be considered with account of the time factor, while using statistical data for this purpose enables to build forecasts and assess planning risks, accounting for the specifics of the PS as a whole, the equipment used and the organization of processes in a time-limited environment.

Thus, the study aims to develop a method of accounting for planning and production risks associated with the implementation of commodity projects in the PS and which takes into account the time factor in planning and non-deterministic risks. The specific research task involves using the risk assessment apparatus when working with several model parameters on the basis of forecasting data to obtain risk estimates as a time function on the example of a mathematically formalisable management problem (Lado Gonzalez and Calvo Dopico, 2017).

2. Literature Overview

Initially, the issue of product management was considered by Albert Kalmes (Voigt, 2008) as a problem of accounting and statistics in manufacture and commodity production. …

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