Disease Transmission Models for Public Health Decision Making: Toward an Approach for Designing Intervention Strategies for Schistosomiasis Japonica. (Articles)

By Spear, Robert C.; Hubbard, Alan et al. | Environmental Health Perspectives, September 2002 | Go to article overview

Disease Transmission Models for Public Health Decision Making: Toward an Approach for Designing Intervention Strategies for Schistosomiasis Japonica. (Articles)


Spear, Robert C., Hubbard, Alan, Liang, Song, Seto, Edmund, Environmental Health Perspectives


Mathematical models of disease transmission processes can serve as platforms for integration of diverse data, including site-specific information, for the purpose of designing strategies for minimizing transmission. A model describing the transmission of schistosomiasis is adapted to incorporate field data typically developed in disease control efforts in the mountainous regions of Sichuan Province in China, with the object of exploring the feasibility of model-based control strategies. The model is studied using computer simulation methods. Mechanistically based models of this sort typically have a large number of parameters that pose challenges in reducing parametric uncertainty to levels that will produce predictions sufficiently precise to discriminate among competing control options. We describe here an approach to parameter estimation that uses a recently developed statistical procedure called Bayesian melding to sequentially reduce parametric uncertainty as field data are accumulated over several seasons. Preliminary results of applying the approach to a historical data set in southwestern Sichuan are promising. Moreover, technologic advances using the global positioning system, remote sensing, and geographic information systems promise cost-effective improvements in the nature and quality of field data. This, in turn, suggests that the utility of the modeling approach will increase over time. Key words: disease transmission, mathematical models, parameter estimation, schistosomiasis. Environ Health Perspect 110:907-915 (2002). [Online 12 August 2002] http://ehpnet1.niehs.nih.gov/docs/2002/110p907-915spear/abstract.html

**********

In a companion article, Eisenberg et al. (2002) present an approach to the analysis of infectious disease transmission for waterborne pathogens using dynamic models studied via computer simulation techniques. Here we present an application of this approach to designing local control strategies for the parasitic disease schistosomiasis. The schistosomiasis transmission cycle involves mammals and freshwater snail species linked through contact with different forms of the parasite in surface waters. Our work focuses on agricultural villages in the southwestern part of Sichuan Province in China, where schistosomiasis is endemic. The challenge is to determine whether a dynamic modeling approach can be a useful tool in specifying effective intervention strategies. We propose to use the model to integrate general knowledge of the factors controlling transmission of the disease, quantitative data specific to the transmission of schistosomiasis in China, and site-specific data of the sort typically available in these settings.

This report is of work in progress in that our activities to date have been concerned with model formulation and its parameterization, particularly in light of the kind of field data commonly generated in rural China. We have not yet designed and implemented an intervention program. However, much of our work has been devoted to analysis of data from a study that culminated in a successful intervention program carried out by our colleagues at the Sichuan Institute of Parasitic Disease over 1987-1995. Regrettably, that intervention was not sustainable because of recurrent annual costs of drug treatment. This underscores that the search is for an intervention strategy that is not only effective but also sustainable in a local context.

It is important to point out at the outset that we are not designing intervention trials in a traditional epidemiologic context. Our objective is not to determine whether a particular intervention is effective when all other factors are controlled. For schistosomiasis, there is a considerable body of knowledge about the array of methods of controlling transmission that have been employed in different settings. The task is to determine which blend of the subset of feasible interventions should be used in a particular setting and to predict its probable effectiveness in diminishing disease transmission. …

The rest of this article is only available to active members of Questia

Already a member? Log in now.

Notes for this article

Add a new note
If you are trying to select text to create highlights or citations, remember that you must now click or tap on the first word, and then click or tap on the last word.
One moment ...
Default project is now your active project.
Project items

Items saved from this article

This article has been saved
Highlights (0)
Some of your highlights are legacy items.

Highlights saved before July 30, 2012 will not be displayed on their respective source pages.

You can easily re-create the highlights by opening the book page or article, selecting the text, and clicking “Highlight.”

Citations (0)
Some of your citations are legacy items.

Any citation created before July 30, 2012 will labeled as a “Cited page.” New citations will be saved as cited passages, pages or articles.

We also added the ability to view new citations from your projects or the book or article where you created them.

Notes (0)
Bookmarks (0)

You have no saved items from this article

Project items include:
  • Saved book/article
  • Highlights
  • Quotes/citations
  • Notes
  • Bookmarks
Notes
Cite this article

Cited article

Style
Citations are available only to our active members.
Buy instant access to cite pages or passages in MLA, APA and Chicago citation styles.

(Einhorn, 1992, p. 25)

(Einhorn 25)

1. Lois J. Einhorn, Abraham Lincoln, the Orator: Penetrating the Lincoln Legend (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992), 25, http://www.questia.com/read/27419298.

Cited article

Disease Transmission Models for Public Health Decision Making: Toward an Approach for Designing Intervention Strategies for Schistosomiasis Japonica. (Articles)
Settings

Settings

Typeface
Text size Smaller Larger Reset View mode
Search within

Search within this article

Look up

Look up a word

  • Dictionary
  • Thesaurus
Please submit a word or phrase above.
Print this page

Print this page

Why can't I print more than one page at a time?

Help
Full screen

matching results for page

    Questia reader help

    How to highlight and cite specific passages

    1. Click or tap the first word you want to select.
    2. Click or tap the last word you want to select, and you’ll see everything in between get selected.
    3. You’ll then get a menu of options like creating a highlight or a citation from that passage of text.

    OK, got it!

    Cited passage

    Style
    Citations are available only to our active members.
    Buy instant access to cite pages or passages in MLA, APA and Chicago citation styles.

    "Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn, 1992, p. 25).

    "Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences." (Einhorn 25)

    "Portraying himself as an honest, ordinary person helped Lincoln identify with his audiences."1

    1. Lois J. Einhorn, Abraham Lincoln, the Orator: Penetrating the Lincoln Legend (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1992), 25, http://www.questia.com/read/27419298.

    Cited passage

    Thanks for trying Questia!

    Please continue trying out our research tools, but please note, full functionality is available only to our active members.

    Your work will be lost once you leave this Web page.

    Buy instant access to save your work.

    Already a member? Log in now.

    Author Advanced search

    Oops!

    An unknown error has occurred. Please click the button below to reload the page. If the problem persists, please try again in a little while.