Japan Should Take a Lesson from Greenspan's Fed
H. Erich Heinemann. H. Erich Heinemann is chief economist of Ladenburg, Thalmann &. Co., investment bankers York., The Christian Science Monitor
AS 1991 heads toward the homestretch, the big question mark in the world economy is Japan. The current expansion in Japan began in November 1986. Most analysts believe the Japanese will avoid outright recession. However, the risk of a downturn is rising. A deep decline is unlikely, but if one developed, that would cast a dark shadow over global prospects.
The Bank of Japan imposed a tight clamp on Japan's money supply more than a year ago. The annual growth rate of the key money measure plummeted from more than 13 percent in mid-1990 to about 3.5 percent currently.
According to John Greenwood, publisher of the Asian Monetary Monitor, a leading economic journal, this "abrupt monetary slowdown was more severe than any in the postwar period." On July 1, the Bank of Japan reversed itself and cut its discount rate to 5.5 percent from 6 percent, a clear signal of relaxation. Further cuts are probable. This experiment in go-stop-go policy was out of character for the bank, which had an enviable reputation for stable policy.
Unfortunately, the Bank of Japan's action came too late to prevent a slowdown, if not a recession. As a result of the money squeeze, telltale signs of a slump in Japan are now visible.
Columbia University's business cycle research center says that "growth rates of the leading indexes of most major market economies have now picked up.... The major exception to this trend was Japan, where the leading index has continued to languish."
Manufacturing output has started to drop. Sales have gone down even more. Consequently, the ratio of inventories to sales is up substantially among producers of machine tools and other general industrial machinery. Key observers in Tokyo say this pattern will likely be a harbinger of further cutbacks in production.
Corporate cash flow and liquidity are under pressure. The ratio of cash flow (retained earnings plus depreciation) to sales is down. The director of research at a major Tokyo investment firm says this means that Japanese firms are likely to pare their plans for capital investment.
The scandals that have rocked financial markets in Tokyo have also shaken confidence in the stability of Japan's role in world capital markets. …