Rapid Action Needed on Aid to Soviets
Frank Vogl. Frank Vogl is a former World Bank spokesman and president of Vogl Communications., The Christian Science Monitor
THE economy of the Soviet Union is now in a free fall. As it collapses, so it directly adds to the mounting problems confronted by each of the nations of Central and Eastern Europe as they struggle to move from communism to capitalism. As a group these countries have on average seen economic output fall fully 19 percent in the last 19 months, while inflation has rushed ahead at annual rates well over 100 percent.
To strengthen the momentum of reform from Poland to Hungary to Czechoslovakia, while striving to prevent utter chaos in the Soviet Union, the West must aid Moscow. Western finance ministers, meeting this week in Bangkok at the annual meetings of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) agree with this, but they are uncertain about the scale of their response.
The collapse of the Soviet economy, involving massive shortages of foreign exchange, has produced huge cuts in Soviet imports. Traditional East European exporters to the Soviet Union have suffered. The IMF estimates that the decline in 1991 in Czech, Bulgarian, Hungarian, and Romanian trade with the USSR and traditional East European trading partners could be fully 65 percent; the fall in Polish exports could exceed 75 percent.
At their Bangkok gathering, the seven major industrial democracies did agree with the Soviets to help devise a reform program, implying that aid would be forthcoming when the transition to free enterprise is under way. Deputy finance ministers of the seven are to go to Moscow in a few weeks in this regard.
The caution on the part of Western finance ministers is understandable. Nobody has any hard facts. IMF experts are in Moscow trying to nail down the numbers. Daily matters seem to be getting worse. IMF chief Michel Camdessus admits that he just does not have any precise data on the scale of the country's economic deterioration, or the size of its foreign currency reserves.
Since the London summit of the major Western industrial leaders in July, there has been quite a lot of action. …