Publishing Industry Sees Recovery on the Horizon
Guy Halverson, writer of The Christian Science Monitor, The Christian Science Monitor
THE United States publishing industry is cautiously optimistic about increased sales, higher profits, and - in the case of daily newspapers - stepped-up advertising for the remainder of 1993.
Looking ahead to the late 1990s, multimedia companies within the industry stand to benefit from technological advances in the interactive television/communications sector, as cable systems give TV watchers 500 or more channels to choose from.
Few people in publishing are yet willing to say that the impact of the recent economic downturn is over. The publishing industry was especially hard hit by the recession due to lost advertising revenues. But there is a growing perception that the bottom has been hit. Advertising revenue is up about 7 percent this year.
Yet publications continue to go out of business. The 92-year old HG (formerly House & Garden) will cease publication in July. This week, two trade journals catering to the advertising industry, Magazine Week and News Inc., announced they are shutting down. Variety, a venerable weekly covering the entertainment industry, announced that, to cut costs, it will begin publishing biweekly during the summer. The number of editorial pages in each issue also will be cut.
Wall Street analysts say that for all the "sturm und drang" of the past two years - reduced advertising lineage, widespread mergers and consolidations, extensive layoffs, and the folding of a number of publications - the industry has stabilized and is poised for modest gains.
For example, the newspaper industry's earnings gains for the first quarter of 1993 were a clear improvement over 1992 fourth-quarter results, say Susan Decker and Bret Rekas, newspaper analysts for Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Inc., an investment house.
But overall, newspapers continue to show a slow and rocky recovery - a situation that could continue into 1994, says Gerald Holtzman, an analyst for Value Line Institutional Services, prviding investment analytical services. If the current recovery falters, advertisers might make new cutbacks in ad campaigns. …