Stockton, Calif., Prepares for Bankruptcy. Are Other US Cities at Risk?
Trumbull, Mark, The Christian Science Monitor
Stockton, which lost tax revenues from the housing bust and faces high pension costs for retired public workers, serves as a warning. Some US cities face tough choices to avoid bankruptcy.
The city of Stockton, Calif., population 290,000, is paving the way for a court filing that would make it the largest US city ever to enter bankruptcy.
Stockton got trapped between a housing bust, which depleted its tax revenues, and high costs for such obligations as retiree pensions. It reached a breaking point this week with the failure of last-ditch talks with creditors and labor unions.
The city, which is preparing a bankruptcy filing that could come as early as Wednesday, is a warning signal to America about risks in the realm of municipal finance.
The good news is that, with a few exceptions such as Detroit, other big cities don't face an imminent bankruptcy or financial crisis. And even metro areas that get into financial trouble usually find a way out that falls short of bankruptcy or default on their debts.
But America's road ahead appears likely to include more municipal bankruptcies. And to avoid financial emergencies, many other cities will face a period of tough choices about costs and taxes.
A central problem for cities nationwide is the cost of public- employee pensions and health benefits.
In a 2011 study published in the Milken Institute Review, Joshua Rauh, a finance expert at Northwestern University in Chicago, found that state and local government's have fallen short in their pension funding by somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.3 trillion (an estimate using official government accounting rules) and $3 trillion (using a stricter approach advocated by Mr. Rauh).
If the unfunded liability is as large as estimated by Rauh, that would total some $20,000 per US household. For residents of large cities including New York, Chicago, and San Francisco, the per- household liability is even larger.
If unaddressed, this situation could grow into a public-debt crisis.
For now, though, most cities have some running room. Currently, only 30 of some 12,000 municipalities rated by Moody's Investors Service have "junk" credit status, also known as below investment grade. …