OSU Report Forecasts Economic Improvement

By Titus, Nancy Raiden | THE JOURNAL RECORD, January 18, 1994 | Go to article overview

OSU Report Forecasts Economic Improvement


Titus, Nancy Raiden, THE JOURNAL RECORD


Journal Record Staff Reporter

Oklahoma should have slightly higher economic growth in 1994 than in 1993, according to the 15th annual economic forecast presented by Oklahoma State University's College of Business Administration.

The 1994 Oklahoma Economic Outlook predicted inflation-adjusted growth of 2.2 percent for 1994, up from the 2.1 percent growth it tracked in 1993. This compares with forecasts of 3 percent national growth.

"We are finding that we tend to move more closely to the national rates all the time," said Dr. Gerald Lage, economics professor and director of the OSU Econometric Model used in making the forecast.

"With the diversification trend and less emphasis on the sectors of government, agriculture and energy, we tend to move more like the national gross domestic product."

He said Oklahoma's nominal gross state product, which is not adjusted for inflation, gives an even better picture for 1994. It shows an increase of 6.7 percent during 1994 to $71.4 billion.

"This is the type of growth that is sustainable and is not so fast as to cause inflationary fears. It is growth that stays with us for a while."

The outlook also predicted a 1.4 percent increase in nonagricultural jobs, representing the addition of 17,000 jobs in the state during the year.

Personal income is expected to increase 5 percent to $57.5 billion. Per capita personal income is predicted to rise 4.8 percent to $17,965, or 83 percent of the $21,773 U.S. per capita income.

The outlook is based on the OSU Econometric Model developed by the college. It uses assumptions of national and international economic conditions predicted by DRI McGraw-Hill Inc. in its November 1993 baseline forecast.

The report is to be presented today during a conference in Tulsa. The conference also will include presentations on the economics of health care reform and the impact of Oklahoma health care policy on the state's businesses.

The school also plans to discuss the report at an Executive Management Briefing at 5 p.m. Wednesday at the Kirkpatrick Center in Oklahoma City. That briefing includes a presentation on "Economic Policies for the 1990s" by Dr. Jerry L. Jordan, president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

The 1994 outlook also predicted that state revenues from income taxes will increase 6.5 percent to $1.5 billion, while sales tax revenues will rise 3.5 percent to $1.05 billion. If crude oil prices recover to 1992 levels, severance tax revenues are predicted to climb 4.2 percent to $402 million. …

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