A Stock Forecaster Dealing in Specifics

By Cunniff, John | THE JOURNAL RECORD, August 10, 1998 | Go to article overview

A Stock Forecaster Dealing in Specifics


Cunniff, John, THE JOURNAL RECORD


NEW YORK -- The stock market decline will continue into early October, paring 26 percent from earlier highs of the Dow Jones industrial average and 40 percent from Nasdaq stocks.

You can accept this forecast for what it's worth, but you should know that some of the market's biggest institutional investors pay big bucks to obtain it, and that the analyst who came up with this prediction has often been uncannily correct.

That analyst, Robert S. Morrow of Bradenton, Fla., proprietor of the High Tech Growth Forecaster, stated in June 1987 that the DJIA would peak at 2,700 in August. It peaked at 2,722 that month.

Morrow began warning a year ago of a major decline in the market to occur in June of this year. Since then he has been refining the timing; earlier this year he saw it beginning in June. He concedes his error.

In the past decade he has never been averse to going public with specifics. One explanation for specifics rather than generalities is that Morrow is a scientist by training, a stock market analyst by extension. As a scientist, he holds 37 patents, most of them involving wave analysis.

Years ago he began applying understanding Fourier analysis, such as in the vibrations created by aircraft wings or emitted by turbines, to the study of stock market behavior. The marketplace, he found, produces its own unique wave patterns that, when understood, can be just as readily read and interpreted. As such, Morrow seeks guidance from the market itself rather than from the economy.

These are specifics of his forecast as of Thursday:

* The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, which reached a high of 1,187 July 17, will fall to 875 by Oct. 11. The decline from its high: 26 percent.

* The DJIA, which reached a high of 9,338 points on July 17, will decline to 6,885 by Oct. 11. A decline of 26 percent.

* The Nasdaq composite index, which reached a high of 2,014 July 20, will drop to 1,221 in October. A decline of 40 percent from its 12-month high. …

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